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Bears vs Lions Week 12 Thanksgiving Thursday Props

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 8:04 AM PDT

Matthew Stafford Lions QB
Matthew Stafford will look to improve on his 4-4 Thanksgiving Day record when his Lions host the Bears. Photo by Mike Morbeck (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The Chicago Bears head to Detroit to face the Lions in the early game on Thanksgiving Thursday
  • See three props you’ll want to consider for this game

This year’s Thanksgiving slate kicks off with a rather interesting matchup, well as interesting as a game can be when one-half is the perpetually mediocre Lions.

The Chicago Bears come to town, only 11 days removed from a 34-22 beat-down of Detroit that wasn’t even as close as it sounds. However…

Mitch Trubisky’s questionable status makes this early afternoon affair far more intriguing, but it also limits the amount of props books have been willing to put out for this game. Still, we forge ahead!

Prop #1: Lions cover the halftime spread

1st Half Spread Odds
Chicago Bears (-3) Even
Detroit Lions (+3) -120

Trubisky or not, I don’t love the odds of the Bears coming out flying in this one. They’re in uncharted territory: no team has ever played on Sunday Night and then played in the early Thanksgiving window the following week.

It’s not even that common for a team to play in the 4pm window on Sunday and then visit Detroit on Turkey Day. Of the last five teams to attempt that turnaround, four trailed going into halftime in Detroit. And that included the 2010 New England Patriots.

The Bears are bound to be sluggish coming into this one. Take the Lions to at least be in this game by the time some garbage local act nobody cares about comes out for halftime.

Pick: Lions 1st Half +3 (-120)

Prop #2: Kenny Golladay To Have At Least 1 Receiving TD and At Least 71 Receiving Yards

Player Props Odds
Kenny Golladay At Least 71 Receiving Yards -500
Kenny Golladay At Least 1 Receiving TD -118
Parlay +122

The Lions have had three games since Golden Tate’s departure at the trade deadline. Here’s what he’s been able to do.

Kenny Golladay Stats Since Week 9

Opponent Targets Catches Yards TDs
@ Minnesota 4 3 46 0
@ Chicago 13 6 78 1
Carolina 14 8 113 1

Keep in mind Stafford was basically throwing from his back against the Vikings as they racked up 10 sacks(!) in that game. Golladay is an unquestioned number one receiver in this offense. The Bears have excellent corners, but even they can’t stop catches like this.

With Kerryon Johnson out, the Lions have little else on offense to work with. Take Golladay to feast.

Pick: Golladay To Have At Least 1 Receiving TD and At Least 71 Receiving Yards (+122)

Prop #3: Drew Brees to have more completions than Matthews Stafford

Quarterback Odds
Drew Brees -122
Matthew Stafford -122

Sure, we’re crossing games, but that’s part of the fun of Thanksgiving!

And the fact that these QBs have the same odds was actually shocking to me. Throw out the fact that Brees is averaging a whole completion more per game than Stafford: he’s also not playing a terrifying defense this week.

Chicago is tops in defensive DVOA by a wide margin and already showed Stafford how tough sledding against them can be. Stafford finished their Week 9 game with 25 completions, but he added 12 of those in the fourth quarter when the game was well out of reach.

Since I’m predicting this game to be a lot closer this time around, Stafford will see a lot less easy completions and a lot more of this.

Meanwhile, last time Brees played the Falcons, he completed 39 of 49 passes, a sub-par day by this year’s standards. Take Brees here.

Pick: Drew Brees has More Completions Than Matthew Stafford (-122)

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