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Week 5 NFL Against the Spread Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Dec 16, 2022 · 2:49 AM PST

Zach Wilson running out of the tunnel
New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) runs onto the field to face the Tennessee Titans during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
  • Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, October 10th
  • Our best bets last week were 2-1 (2021 season: 5-7, -2.9 units)
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 5 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

Week 5 on the NFL calendar continues on Sunday, and the action starts bright and early from London. The league’s first of two games from England this season kicks off at 9:30 am ET, and the contest makes an appearance on this week’s ATS betting card.

Week 5 ATS Picks

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons ATL (-3) NYJ (+3) 1
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings MIN (-9.5) MIN (-9.5) 1
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals ARZ (-5) SF (+5) 1

Odds as of  Oct. 7th at FanDuel and DraftKings. See bottom for rest of Week 5 Picks.

The matchup featuring the Jets and Falcons is about as grimy as it gets, but you’re going to watch it so you might as well have a rooting interest.

Jets Stun Falcons

This is as much a play against Atlanta as it is on the Jets. The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites, but that line has already been bet down to -3, and even -2.5 at some online sportsbooks.

Simply put, Atlanta’s defense is atrocious. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, 31st in pass rush efficiency, 25th in coverage, and 23rd in yards allowed. They’re 1-3 ATS versus the closing line (0-3-1 ATS versus the opening line) and their struggles not only covering, but winning games, extends back to last season.

The Falcons are 5-15 straight up in their last 20 contests, and 1-5 as a favorite. They’ve covered just eight times in their past 20 outings, while Matt Ryan is on pace for the worst QBR of his career.

To make matters worse, number one wideout Calvin Ridley is out, leaving Atlanta with virtually no playmakers outside of Cordarrelle Paterson.

On the other side of the ball, rookie Zach Wilson is fresh off the best game of his career, and should find more success against this putrid Falcons secondary. Atlanta has allowed three of the four QB’s they’ve faced to be top-five performers for that week, and Wilson looked like a different player last week against a Tennessee defense that also struggles to rush the passer.

Also working in Wilson’s favor is the return of Jamison Crowder. The slot receiver came back in Week 4 and made an immediate impact catching seven balls for 61 yards and a score.

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Vikings Maul Lions

Our next target is the Minnesota Vikings giving 9.5-points to the Detroit Lions. Minnesota has faced arguably the league’s toughest schedule so far, but a difficult matchup isn’t projected for them on Sunday.

Detroit has been absolutely decimated by injuries, which has severely compromised their offensive line, pass rush and secondary.

On the o-line front, left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow are out, while first round pick Penei Swell is doubtful. That doesn’t bode well considering how pressure sensitive Jared Goff is, and how well the Vikings rush the passer. Minnesota ranks eighth in pressure rate, while Goff is completing only 50% of his throws, with two picks under duress this season.

In the secondary, Lions corners have been dropping like flies all season, which should set up big days for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Also working in favor of the Vikings’ passing game is the fact that Detroit’s top pass rusher Romeo Okwara was just placed on injured reserve.

The Vikings came up short last week, but are 32-15 ATS under Mike Zimmer following a loss, and 4-0 in those instances where they’re favored by 7.5 points or more.

49ers Cover vs Cardinals

Finally, we’re backing the San Francisco 49ers as 5-point underdogs in Arizona. Everyone is racing to crown Arizona a Super Bowl contender based on their perfect record, but looks can be deceiving.

The Cards beat an overrated Titans team, got bailed out by a missed field goal versus Minnesota, and struggled to put away Jacksonville. Last week against the Rams was their first victory over a playoff contender, but it seems like the market has over adjusted. The lookahead line for this game was Arizona -1.5, and you could argue the 49ers are in better shape now that Trey Lance will start.

The third overall pick will give San Fran’s offense a completely new look on offense, and you can bet Kyle Shanahan will scheme up a game plan to maximize his strengths. Side note, maybe the Chicago Bears should pay attention.

The 49ers will lean heavily on their ground attack, which will now includes the dynamic Lance, and will likely give the Cardinals headaches. Arizona ranks 25th in adjusted line yards, 16th in rush DVOA, and have allowed the most 5+ yard rushes in the NFL.

San Fran’s two losses have come against quality opponents (Seattle and Green Bay) by a combined 9 points.

Week 5 Quick Picks

  • Washington (+2.5) vs Saints: New Orleans is operating an offense right out of the stone age. They’re devoid of playmakers and refuse to use Alvin Kamara in the passing game, which is arguably his biggest strength.
  • Panthers (-3) vs Eagles: Carolina came back down to earth last week but should rebound here. Philly will once again be shorthanded on the offensive line, and don’t have the secondary pieces to match up with the Panthers receiving corps.
  • Bengals (+3) vs Packers: Possible letdown spot for Green Bay after back-to-back wins over San Fran and Pittsburgh. Cincy is operating very efficiently on offense, and Joe Mixon’s injury could force them to lean heavier on Joe Burrow against a Packers team missing its top corner and pass rusher.
  • Patriots (-8.5) vs Texans: Bill Belichick versus a rookie QB. Enough said.
  • Jaguars (+4) vs Titans: Despite the circus that is Urban Meyer, Jacksonville shows up here after an extended rest and covers versus an overrated Tennessee squad.
  • Steelers (-1) vs Broncos: If Drew Lock plays this is a home run selection, but it still shows value if Teddy Bridgewater is able to clear the concussion protocol. Denver’s record is inflated by a cupcake schedule, while Pittsburgh needs this game to save its season.
  • Buccaneers (-10) vs Dolphins: To beat Tampa Bay you have to be able to attack through the air, something the Dolphins are not built to do with Jacoby Brissett under center.
  • Chargers (-2) vs Browns: Baker Mayfield looked atrocious last week and now it’s come out that he’s playing with a torn labrum. LA meanwhile, looks like a legit Super Bowl contender.
  • Bears (+5.5) vs Raiders: Perhaps Chicago will take the training wheels off Justin Fields, but it’s more likely they stay in this game by playing good defense and pounding the rock.
  • Giants (+7) vs Cowboys: Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home over his career, but 11-4 ATS on the road, including 10-2 ATS as a road dog.
  • Bills (+3) vs Chiefs: Only the Falcons have given up more points than KC, while Buffalo is surrendering a league low 11 points per contest.
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