Week 9 NFL Props for Sunday: Will Rams/Saints Explode on Offense?
- Nathan Peterman and his turnover issues highlight our Week 9 NFL Props for Sunday
- Demaryius Thomas goes head-to-head with Courtland Sutton; can the rookie outdo the vet?
- Will the Rams and Saints game turn into a track meet or a defensive standoff?
The story in Week 9 of the NFL season is quarterbacks.
On Sunday night, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers go head-to-head for just the second time ever. In the afternoon, it’s Drew Brees taking on Jared Goff. Those are two premier matchups.
When it comes to the 1:00 PM games, quarterbacks are the story again, but for a different reason.
Week 9 NFL Props for Sunday
Prop #1: How many times will the Bears pick off Peterman?
| How many picks will Nathan Peterman throw in Week 9? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | -120 |
| Under 1.5 | -120 |
The Buffalo Bills just can’t get the quarterback position sorted out this year.
First it was Nathan Peterman. Then it was Josh Allen. Then it was Derek Anderson. Now it’s back to Peterman. And that has the Chicago Bears’ defense licking its lips.
Everyone is very familiar with Peterman’s history. In his first NFL start, he was chased after throwing five picks against the Chargers. The rest of the year wasn’t great either.
This year has been just as bad. Peterman threw two picks in each of his two starts. That’s four interceptions on 32 attempts; 21% of his incompletions have been interceptions.
The Bears, meanwhile, had logged an interception every week of the regular season before Sam Darnold threw a clean Week 8. Their pass rush is causing havoc and hurried throws.
| 4 | Week 1* | 1 |
| 6 | Week 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Week 3* | 3 |
| 4 | Week 4* | 3 |
| 0 | Week 6 | 2 |
| 1 | Week 7 | 1 |
| 1 | Week 8 | 0 |
*denotes multiple opposing QBs
-Bears Bye Week was Week 5
In addition to a great pass rush (fifth-best pressure grade according to PFF at 73.9), Chicago also has the second-best coverage grade (89.9).
I think you see where we’re headed.
The Pick: Peterman throws OVER 1.5 picks (-120)
Prop #2: Will Courtland Sutton outshine ex-teammate Demaryius Thomas?
| Who has more receiving yards in Week 9? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton, DEN | -220 |
| Demaryius Thomas, HOU | +155 |
While the NFL trade deadline was quieter than anticipated, the Houston Texans made one of the big moves. That was acquiring Demaryius Thomas from the Denver Broncos.
In a weird twist of fate, Thomas’ first game with his new team is in Denver. He’ll also be going head-to-head with his protégé, Courtland Sutton, who’s expected to absorb his snaps.
COURTLAND SUTTON, BITCHES!!!! https://t.co/TSXMu1XXGV
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) October 30, 2018
Who will win the duel? The odds favor Sutton and for good reason.
| 2 REC / 45 YDS | Week 1 | 6 REC / 63 YDS |
| 1 REC / 9 YDS | Week 2 | 5 REC / 18 YDS |
| 2 REC / 37 YDS | Week 3 | 5 REC / 63 YDS |
| 3 REC / 51 YDS | Week 4 | 4 REC / 24 YDS |
| 2 REC / 18 YDS | Week 5 | 5 REC / 105 YDS |
| 3 REC / 58 YDS | Week 6 | 3 REC / 57 YDS |
| 1 REC / 28 YDS | Week 7 | 5 REC / 42 YDS |
| 3 REC / 78 YDS | Week 8 | 3 REC / 30 YDS |
Thomas has to learn an entirely new system. He’s been around the block in the NFL, but the Broncos are the only team he’s ever known. There will be an adjustment period.
There will also be an adjustment period for Houston QB Deshaun Watson. Thomas is replacing Will Fuller, but they aren’t the same receiver. Fuller had a 76.2% reception percentage and averaged 15.7 yards per reception.
Thomas’ numbers? 64.3% and 11.2 yards per reception.
Courtland Sutton's 19.1 yards per reception trails only DeSean Jackson (22.8) and Tyrell Williams (21.4) for the league lead.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 30, 2018
While Thomas is getting used to a new system and QB, Sutton has had half a season to marinate in the Broncos’ passing game.
Sutton breaks out in a big way against the Texans.
The Pick: Courtland Sutton (-220) has more receiving yards than Demaryius Thomas.
Prop #3: Will Rams vs Saints be an offensive onslaught?
| How many yards will the Rams and Saints combine for? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 830.5 | -120 |
| Under 830.5 | -120 |
The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams have it clicking offensively.
Jared Goff’s offense is averaging the second-most yards per game in the NFL at 442.6. They’re also third in points-per-game at an even 33.0.
The Saints, meanwhile, are ahead of them in that category (33.4), and Drew Brees is no slouch, leading his offense to 389.9 yard-per-game (8th overall).
There are stars all over the field in this one. In the backfield, it’s Todd Gurley against Alvin Kamara. There’s also Brandin Cooks going shot-for-shot with Michael Thomas. And Cooper Kupp is returning too.
From @gmfb: #Rams WR Cooper Kupp is expected to be back on Sunday… while #Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is on the cusp of returning from a hamstring injury. pic.twitter.com/i107CYiVER
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 2, 2018
Defensively, the Rams are the second-best team in the league. They have a top-ten run defense and a top-three pass defense.
The Saints have fallen off a bit after a rocksolid 2017.
Saints team PFF rankings:
Overall: 4th
Offense: 3rd
Passing: 1st
Pass Block: 6th
Run: 17th
Run Block: 11th
Defense: 21st
Run Defense: 5th
Pass Defense: 30th
Pass Rush: 5th
Special Teams: 7th— Section600 (formerly AllSaintsConsidered.com) (@Section600) October 29, 2018
There have been just three weeks these two have not combined to hit the over. I’d take it here and watch the fireworks.
The Pick: The Saints and Rams combine to go OVER 830.5 yards (-120).
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
