Wild Card Weekend Upsets and Underdog Picks
- Home underdogs lead the way as best bets to pull of the upset on NFL Wild Card Weekend
- Tampa Bay hosts Dallas as an underdog, while the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Los Angeles Chargers
- Read on for all the odds as NFL playoff action gets underway
The long wait for the start of the NFL Playoffs is finally over, with six contests scheduled on Wild Card Weekend. A pair of home underdogs have emerged as the best bets to pull off the upset this weekend, led by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who look to overcome a middling regular season with a primetime wild card matchup with Dallas on Monday night.
Here’s a look at our top picks to produce as underdogs on NFL Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars | LAC -1.5 | +115 | Jaguars | 1 |
| New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings | MIN -3 | +135 | Giants | 1 |
| Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DAL -2.5 | +118 | Buccaneers | 1 |
Odds as of January 14 at Caesars Sportsbook.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend upset picks: Showtime for Brady and the Bucs
It was a disappointing regular season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who eked out a second straight NFC South title despite stumbling to a middling 8-9 SU record. Plagued by injuries to key veteran personnel, the Buccaneers struggled to generate offense throughout the campaign, which they closed out ranked 25th in the league with just 25.4 points per game.
Tom Brady has a chance to improve to 8-0 with a win vs. Dallas in the NFC Wild Card matchup 👀 pic.twitter.com/H50t7gs5rQ
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 11, 2023
But amid those struggles, Tom Brady remained a consistent presence, joining the league leaders with 4694 passing yards and 25 scoring passes against just nine picks. Brady has been particularly dominant in recent home dates, tossing for 10 scores during a 3-1 SU run.
That is bad news for the Cowboys, who travel to Tampa Bay as 2.5-point road favorites in the NFL odds. The Cowboys emerged as a defensive force early in the season, but have struggled to contain opposing offenses down the stretch, allowing 34 or more points in two of their final four outings. Dak Prescott’s accuracy issues also raise concerns about the Dallas pivot’s ability to produce postseason success, particularly in a showdown with the legendary Brady.
Jags Underdogs in Battle of Elite Passers
The Jacksonville Jaguars return to the postseason for the first time in five years after embarking on an epic second-half run that ended with the AFC South title. But despite dominating at times during a 5-0 stretch run, the Jaguars continue to get little respect at the sportsbooks, where they look to Saturday night’s contest with Los Angeles as 1.5-point home underdogs.
Trevor Lawrence has NEVER lost on a Saturday in high school, college or the NFL. 🤯#DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/XIimua5eVx
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 13, 2023
The emergence of Trevor Lawrence as a legitimate game-breaking NFL quarterback has been key to the Jags’ resurgence. Despite battling a toe injury, Lawrence has lit up opposing defenses for eight TD passes over his past three home dates, and has also demonstrated his ability to guide a ground attack that has produced 147 or more yards in three of four outings.
The Jaguars face a formidable offensive foe in the Chargers, who have enjoyed the benefit of better health after battling injuries early in the campaign. Led by Justin Herbert, the Chargers are a real threat to run up the score. However, the LA pass defense has struggled at times against elite pivots, and with receiver Mike Williams now sidelined by a back injury, Herbert must once again make do with a shorthanded receiving corps.
Giants Travel to Minnesota with Unfinished Business
Fans of the New York Giants have endured somewhat of a roller coaster ride during the 2022 NFL season. The Giants followed up a fast 6-1 start with a 1-4-1 run, but have demonstrated surprising character during a steady stretch run that featured a heartbreaking last-second 27-24 loss in Minnesota in Week 16.
Now set to return to Minnesota for Sunday’s date with the Vikings as 3-point underdogs, the Giants also face the challenge of rewriting losing narratives, both when visiting Minnesota, where they have lost three straight, and in the playoffs, during which they lost in their lone appearance since claiming victory in Super Bowl 46.
However, the Giants have emerged as a defensive force down the stretch, limiting opposing rushers to just one score in four games, and allowing just 10 total first-quarter points in three dates before last week’s meaningless loss to Philadelphia. Considering the Vikings’ recent tendency to spot opponents’ early leads before embarking on epic comebacks, an early lead and a stout performance by the New York defense could be all that this team needs to claim their first playoff win in a decade.
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
