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Auston Matthews Now Has Ridiculously Short +250 Odds to Lead NHL in Goals; Ovechkin at +750

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NHL Hockey

Updated Apr 21, 2020 · 8:09 AM PDT

Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews currently leads the odds to win the Rocket Richard Trophy, despite not leading the league in goals early on. Photo by Michael Miller (Wikimedia Commons)
  • Auston Matthews is the favorite to win the Rocket Richard Trophy
  • David Pastrnak currently leads the NHL in goals (10); Alexander Ovechkin lurks close behind
  • Who is the best bet to lead the NHL in goals?

Despite the Maple Leafs cool start, Auston Matthews has been red hot.

Toronto’s superstar entered Thursday’s action in third place with eight goals. While he still trails Boston’s David Pastrnak, a dominant night from Alexander Ovechkin vaulted Ovie into a tie for second.

With just one 40 goal season under his belt in three years, Matthews leads the Rocket Richard Trophy odds. But should he?

2019/20 Rocket Richard Trophy Odds

Player 2018/19 Goals 2019/20 Goals Odds
Auston Matthews, TOR 37 8 +250
Alex Ovechkin, WAS 51 9 +750
Leon Draisaitl, EDM 50 9 +900
David Pastrnak, BOS 38 10 +1000
Connor McDavid, EDM 41 6 +1200
Nathan MacKinnon, COL 41 5 +1400
Steven Stamkos, TB 45 4 +1400
Patrik Laine, WPG 30 3 +1600
John Tavares, TOR 47 3 +1800
Sidney Crosby, PIT 35 4 +2200
Nikita Kucherov, TB 41 3 +2200
Jake Guentzel, PIT 40 6 +2500
Brad Marchand, BOS 36 5 +2800
Patrick Kane, CHI 44 3 +2800
Mark Scheifele, WPG 38 4 +3300

*Odds taken October 25, 2019

There are a handful of interesting names behind Matthews in the Rocket Richard Trophy odds.

Ovechkin, who has won the award six of the last seven years, is second. We’ll get to that.

But other names with good value early on? Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon and Patrik Laine. Poor James Neal isn’t even a longshot.

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Why Does Auston Matthews Top the Odds?

It’s a pretty interesting question.

Especially when you consider that Matthews has better odds than a couple of 50 goal scorers, and players with more goals than him already.

Is it simply John Tavares’ early-season broken finger?

Auston Matthews Before and After Tavares’ Injury

‘Before
VS
‘After
8 Games Played 3
7 Goals 1
2 Power Play Goals 0
34 Shots 9
18:53 Average Time-on-Ice 21:19

While Matthews’ ice time has gone up in Tavares’ absence, not much else has. He’s falling short of the goal-a-game pace to start the year, while also averaging three shots per game, compared to the 4.9 he was before.

Really all we know is that Tavares’ injury is getting re-evaluated after two weeks. And it’s already been one.

So if the key to scoring is Matthews exploiting the match-ups with Tavares in the lineup, he may have to wait a while longer.

There are a couple of other things to consider.

Auston Matthews’ Career Stats

Season Games Played Goals Power Play Goals Shots Shooting %
2016/17 82 40 8 279 14.3%
2017/18 62 34 5 187 18.2%
2018/19 68 37 12 251 14.7%
Average 70.6 37 8.3 104 15.5%

In the last two seasons, Matthews has averaged over at least 0.5 goals per game. He fell just short in his rookie year.

But it’s also been two years since he played all 82 games. While it’s too early to say if this is a career-long concern, it’s one in the short term.

Great 8, Alex Ovechkin, Isn’t Slowing Down

In 2016/17, Alexander Ovechkin scored just 33 goals. People said he was over the hill.

Spoiler Alert: He wasn’t.

Alex Ovechkin’s Last Six Richard-Winning Seasons

Season Games Played Goals Power Play Goals Shots Shooting %
2012/13* 48 32 16 220 14.5%
2013/14 78 51 24 386 13.2%
2014/15 81 53 25 395 13.4%
2015/16 79 50 19 398 12.6%
2017/18 82 49 17 355 13.8%
2018/19 81 51 18 338 15.1%

*Lockout shortened

With nine goals, Ovechkin’s producing at a 0.75 goals-per-game clip. That’s 0.6 higher than his career average for October. In fact, Ovechkin produces goals at a rate of at least .58 per game in every month except for February (0.54).

Barring injury, Ovechkin will be there at the end of the season.

Draisaitl, McDavid Duo Could Earn Richard

While Connor McDavid is coming off of back-to-back 41-goal seasons, we don’t think he’s winning. But he’ll have a hand in the proceedings.

To this point, Leon Draisaitl has eight goals. McDavid has assisted on five of them, including each of Draisaitl’s last four. According to Dobber’s Frozen Tools, the line of Draisaitl, McDavid and Zack Kassian played 45% of the game against the Capitals.

In total, that line is used 24.5% of the time by Edmonton, while McDavid and Draisaitl are also on the top power play. They’re used twice as much as the next closest pairing in overtime.

Where Odds Lead Us in Rocket Richard Race

Right now, while Auston Matthews has a chance to take home the award, we can’t endorse him as the runaway leader.

Especially with serious value surrounding Ovechkin, and the talented Draisaitl spending a ton of time with the best player in the world.

If you like Auston, maybe wait until John Tavares comes back into the fold and see if his odds slide. Otherwise, this is the time to hammer two tried-and-true goalscorers.

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