Bruins -180 Favorites at Home to Islanders Despite December Slump

• Bruins have lost six of their last seven games
• Islanders have given up least amount of goals in NHL, but scored sixth-fewest
• Islanders have been resilient as underdogs in 2019-2020

Going into their 20^th home game this season, the Boston Bruins have been the favorites in all 19 previous contests at TD Garden, with tonight’s odds continuing that trend at (-180). The New York Islanders are playing the underdog role for the 11th time in 2019-2020, with nine of those games occurring on the road. This is the first time both teams are playing each other in 2019-2020.

Islanders vs Bruins Odds

Odds taken Dec. 19

Bruins Have Best Home Record in NHL, Despite December Slump

Despite suffering their first regulation loss at home on December 7, Boston currently has the best home record in the league (12-1-6). December hasn’t been kind to the Bruins, whose sole regulation home loss occurred in the midst of the team’s current slump, over which they’ve lost six of their last seven contests and six of nine games this month.

First regulation loss at @tdgarden.#NHLBruins pic.twitter.com/SvMP5FlxNJ

— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) December 8, 2019

Despite having one regulation home loss, Boston has only won two of their last five contests at TD Garden (2-1-2). This month Boston is only averaging 2.44 goals for and 2.88 goals against per game, which are vastly different from their respective season game averages of 3.37 (GF)/2.57 (GA). Having said that, Boston has gone 5-3-1 (three wins being shutouts) in games against the 10-least scored on teams this season. Out of those nine matches, however, seven had a total of five or fewer goals scored.

Islanders Scoring as Few Goals as They’re Surrendering

Both teams rank top-five in goals against, but New York currently has the fewest goals against in the league (80/2.50 per game). While goaltending has been instrumental in maintaining their .680 win percentage (22-8-2 record), the Islanders are struggling offensively, having netted just 95 goals (2.96 per game) all season, which ranks 23^rd among NHL teams.

The Islanders came into tonight allowing the second-fewest goals per game at 2.32. The Predators have seven so far.

— Paul Skrbina (@PaulSkrbina) December 18, 2019

Unlike Boston however, the Islanders are producing at above-average rates in December, scoring 3.00 goals per game and averaging 2.75 against. If you factor out their 8-3 loss against the Nashville Predators on December 17, their GAA for the month drops to 1.75.

Islanders Embracing Underdog Role

Having played the underdog role in 11 of 32 games this season, the Islanders are 8-3 in that scenario. New York played nine of those games on the road and have come out on top by a 2:1 ratio (6-3). Tonight’s contest will mark the fifth time New York is the road underdog this month and despite their resilience in this scenario all season, it’s worth noting they’ve lost two of those four contests.

Since their 17-game point streak, the Islanders have come down to Earth but managed to maintain above .500 hockey, going 6-5-0 (.540 win percentage). In December, New York has improved to 5-3-0 (.620 win percentage), slightly improving in the win category and combating any skepticism that dismisses their momentous streak earlier this season as a fluke.

Best Bets

It’s very tempting to go with the Bruins, as the numbers seem to heavily favor their chances. Given their performance this month along with New York seeming to thrive as road underdogs, anyone considering this game should think this one through before committing.

Despite Boston’s recent struggles, New York’s above .500 play this month and elite goaltending, the Bruins offense and well-rounded game is second-to-none and it’s hard to go against their tremendous record at home. The safe bet is for the Bruins to win outright (-180) with the “Under” (-125) being a solid insurance wager.

Picks: Boston Bruins (-180), Under 5.5 (-125)