Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames Game 4 Odds and Pick – Aug 16

• In a low-scoring affair, the Flames won 2-0, taking a 2-1 series lead
• Cam Talbot made 35 saves in his best performance of the playoffs
• Game 4 goes Sunday at 2pm ET; we break down the odds and give our pick

After a disappointing result Thursday, the Flames found a way to muscle out a win in Game 3 against the Stars. Thanks to another shorthanded goal, Calgary restored their lead in the series, splitting their back-to-back games.

Now, with a day off before Game 4, the Flames eye a commanding 3-1 series lead, with the puck dropping at 2pm ET on Sunday.

Stars vs Flames Game 4 Odds

Odds as of Aug. 15.

When the odds opened on Game 3, the Stars were listed at -109 on DraftKings. With a pivotal game on deck, it looks like sportsbooks are going to back Dallas to tie their series with the Flames. The gap isn’t quite as charitable as others, however.

In terms of the Flames vs Stars odds to win out, things have shifted heavily. It’s mostly been a pick ’em from the start, but Game 3’s win saw Calgary’s odds increase significantly.

Flames Faith Remains in Cam Talbot

Some wondered aloud whether David Rittich would get Game 3 or not.

We did pose the question too, only because Cam Talbot didn’t look great in Game 2. But Rittich hasn’t played a competitive game since March. It would’ve been a bold move.

"He was lights out."

Dillon Dube had tons of praise for Cam Talbot's Game 3 performance. pic.twitter.com/44k6bDQkaH

— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) August 15, 2020

Geoff Ward stuck with Talbot though, and it paid off.

Cam Talbot: Series vs Game 3

Cam Talbot stole Game 3 for the Flames.

The Stars’ terrible offensive showing in Game 1 yielded just three high-danger chances. They were better in Game 2, getting six high-danger opportunities. They nearly matched their two game total on Friday, finishing one shy with eight.

"He was outstanding. He was the reason why we won the hockey game."

Geoff Ward talks about Cam Talbot's performance in Game 3 and breaks down his team's play in the 2-0 victory. pic.twitter.com/Cf2TANogTp

— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) August 15, 2020

Their scoring chances were up in a big way too. Dallas totaled 28 across the first two games of the series. In Game 3 they came away with 27.

With the Stars’ offense on an upward swing, the question is whether or not Talbot can do it again.

Offense Tending Downward for Calgary

Yes they have a 2-1 series lead, but things aren’t going as well as they could be for the Flames offensively.

Elias Lindholm assisted on Mikael Backlund’s short-handed goal in the second, but other than that their top line has been quiet. The lone exception was Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau assisting on Sam Bennett’s game-tying goal on Thursday.

Flames Offensive Analytics

This is not a performance conducive to winning a series.

To their credit, the Flames lead the Stars in goals from high-danger areas 2-1. But if you remove Game 1, where their high-danger chances outnumbered the Stars 7-3, the Flames trail 14-8 in that category over the last two games.

#Flames Gaudreau is doing a great job social distancing from Monahan

— Bobby (@bbasran) August 15, 2020

Now numbers aren’t everything. The Flames won all three games against the Jets where their Corsi percentage dipped below 50%. Outside of Game 1 of that series however, their high-danger numbers weren’t skewed that badly.

Stars Need to Bounce Back Against Flames

Both teams can look at Game 4 and call it a must-win. The Stars need to tie the series up to avoid a 3-1 hole, while a win puts the Flames on the brink of moving on.

But it will be Dallas coming out on top Sunday afternoon.

With Tyler Seguin now churning out chances, the Stars’ offense is suddenly dangerous. And Calgary isn’t doing enough offensively. Their top line needs to start creating and if it doesn’t, Dallas will catch them.

The Pick: Dallas Stars -1.5 (+215); Over (-122)