Lightning vs Canadiens Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Odds, Picks and How to Bet
- The Tampa Bay Lightning are -136 road favorites over the Montreal Canadiens for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup final on Friday, July 2nd
- Tampa Bay leads the best-of-seven series 2-0. Over the past 20 years, nine of 11 teams to go up 2-0 in the final series went on to win the Cup
- The Canadiens are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games – read below for our betting advice
The first Stanley Cup final game in Montreal in 28 years couldn’t be bigger for the Canadiens. Down 2-0 to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the best-of-seven series, the Habs face a virtual must-win scenario.
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Only one team – the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs – have ever rebounded from a 3-0 series deficit to win the Stanley Cup final.
Nonetheless, the oddsmakers are sticking with the Lightning. Tampa is a -136 road favorite to take a 3-0 stranglehold on the series. The Bolts are 6-0 against the spread in their last six away contests.
Lightning vs Canadiens Game 3 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread at DraftKings | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -136 | -1.5 (+188) | U 5.0 (-120) |
| Montreal Canadiens | +117 | +1.5 (-230) | O 5.0 (+100) |
Odds as of July 1st
The puck is slated to drop at 8PM EST at the Bell Centre. NBC is carrying the broadcast.
Price Isn’t Right
It would be patently unfair to suggest the only reason the Canadiens are winless in this series is the work of goaltender Carey Price. Montreal has scored just twice in two games. The Habs have been outscored 4-0 in the third period.
However, it’s not wrong to point out that Price is clearly being outplayed by his opposite number, Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy was the star of Game 2. He made 42 saves. It was his sixth career playoff outing with 40-plus saves.
#GoBolts Andrei Vasilevskiy: Last 10 games vs Canadiens
Record 10-0-0
GAA 1.69
Save % .949
Shutouts 2— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) July 1, 2021
Entering the Stanley Cup final, Price was boasting of a .934 save percentage. In two games against the Lightning, Price shows an .840 save percentage.
This is nothing new to Price-Vasilevskiy matchups. Over their past eight meetings, Vasilevskiy is 8-0 with a .967 save percentage. Price is 0-8 with an .879 save percentage.
Price shows an .882 save percentage against Tampa Bay over the past two seasons and an .873 save percentage (214-of-245) over the last three seasons.
Canadiens vs Lightning Series Odds
| Team | Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | +850 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -1250 |
Will Home Cooking Help Habs?
The Canadiens sought permission to increase attendance for Game 3 to 50% capacity. That request was turned down by the Quebec government, meaning there will be 3,500 in attendance.
Montreal has gone 5-1 in the past six games at the Bell Centre. The Canadens are allowing less than two goals per game over that span.
Dear @JustinTrudeau and @francoislegault,
Please open up the Bell Centre to full capacity! Allow 21,000+ fans in for the @CanadiensMTL games. It’s the Stanley Cup FINALS!!!— Genie Bouchard (@geniebouchard) July 1, 2021
Montreal has won three of its last five at home against the Lightning. When playing Game 3 of a playoff series at home, the Canadiens are 5-2 straight up over the past seven games.
From the Tampa Bay perspective, the Lightning have dropped two successive playoff games on the road.
Injury Update
The Canadiens will get their head coach back for Game 3. Dominique Ducharme missed the past six games while in NHL COVID-19 protocol. Assistant coach Luke Richardson handled the bench in Ducharme’s absence, going 3-3. Montreal forwards Jake Evans (concussion) and Tomas Tatar (undisclosed) remain questionable for Game 3.
#Habs Luke Richardson says having Dominique Ducharme physically back behind the bench for Game 3 will be like getting a star player back from the the IR.
— Priyanta Emrith (@HabsInHighHeels) July 1, 2021
Tampa Bay forward Alex Killorn (foot) missed Game 2 and is questionable for Game 3. Lightning forward Ross Colton left Game 2 on two different occasions with an undisclosed injury. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper promised an update on Colton’s status for Game 3 on Friday morning.
Lightning vs Canadiens Game 3 Best Bet
The under is 5-1-2 in the last eight games played at the Bell Centre. The total has also gone under in five of the past six Lightning-Canadiens games played in Montreal.
The Canadiens have dropped successive games for the first time since Games 2-3-4 of the opening round against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The @TBLightning have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series for the ninth time in franchise history and own an 8-0 record in its previous eight scenarios. #StanleyCup #NHLStats: https://t.co/wvGugHLsMi pic.twitter.com/Wyz9b2lfeL
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) July 1, 2021
Tampa Bay is 11-1 straight up in the last 12 games against Montreal. The Canadiens have scored one goal or fewer in each of the last four games against the Lightning.
Montreal hasn’t won back-to-back games against Tampa Bay since a five-game winning streak in 2015-16. Tampa Bay hasn’t lost four out of five games all season long.
The Lightning are 8-0 all-time in playoff series when they’ve taken a 2-0 lead. In the last 10 Stanley Cup Finals where one team opened a 2-0 series lead, the team down 2-0 is 8-2 SU in Game 3. Eight of those 10 series went at least six games.
Pick: Montreal Canadiens (+117)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
