Maple Leafs Open 2018-19 NHL Season as Stanley Cup Favorites

• After back-to-back first round exits, the Toronto Maple Leafs open 2018-19 as Stanley Cup favorites
• The Leafs made the biggest splash in NHL free agency, landing John Tavares
• Tampa Bay sits second, as the top two come from the Eastern Conference

For the first time in a decade, you can say that the Toronto Maple Leafs are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.

And Vegas agrees.

Ahead of the start of the season, the latest odds have the Leafs sitting at a healthy +700.

2019 Stanley Cup Odds

They’re followed up by Atlantic Division rival Tampa Bay (+850). Meanwhile, the top Western Conference team is the Winnipeg Jets (+850).

The last two Stanley Cup champions? They don’t even crack the top five. In terms of average odds, the Pittsburgh Penguins (+1200) and Washington Capitals (+1300) are well behind.

What Makes the Leafs Favorites?

Over the off-season, the Leafs lost a number of key pieces. James van Riemsdyk and his 36 goals are off the Philadelphia. Tyler Bozak is a St. Louis Blue. Leo Komarov followed Lou Lamouriello to Long Island.

But none of that matters, because the prodigal son returned home.

Ever since the Leafs landed John Tavares, their average odds to win the Stanley Cup have shot up.

Leading C goal scorers over the past two seasons:

1) Malkin, 75
2) Matthews, 74
3) Crosby, 73
4) McDavid, 71
5) E.Staal, 70
6) Seguin, 66
7) Tavares, 65
8) Kadri, 64

— CorsiHL(?) (@CorsiHL) 3 July 2018

Even as we wait for William Nylander to sign, their roster is loaded with young talent. Mitch Marner is primed for his first 70 point year. Auston Matthews, too. And those names lost to free agency? There’s plenty of young talent in the pipeline to fill those spots up front.

Could Defense and Goaltending Hold the Leafs Back?

The biggest questions surrounding Toronto are on their blueline and in the crease. Morgan Rielly is the unquestioned leader. He’s played in at least 73 games in all five of his NHL seasons. After him though, things are thin.

Jake Gardiner’s 2018 playoffs ended on a sour note. Nikita Zaitsev stumbled in his second year in North America. And once you take out Ron Hainesy? The Leafs have a grand total of 216 NHL games played on their defense. And 177 of those belong to Martin Marincin.

Games Played by Maple Leafs Defensemen

Can Andersen and Sparks Carry the Leafs’ Load?

Since joining the Leafs, Frederik Andersen has proven he can handle the load as a number one goalie. He’s played 66 games in both years with Toronto, winning 33 and 38 games.

Then issues seemed to pop up in the playoffs last year. He started the first round giving up five goals to Boston. Then three in Games 2, 4, and 5.

After standing on his head with a 33-save, one-goal performance in Game 6, it fell apart in Game 7.
The questions surround a relatively untested Garret Sparks backing up Andersen. How he responds to playing a backup role after playing 95 games in the AHL over the last three years will be key.

Carolina claims Curtis McElhinney off waivers, Philadelphia claims Calvin Pickard. #Leafs impressive goalie depth take a big hit

— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) 2 October 2018

If they find they can’t turn to him for 25 games this season, it’ll quickly start to wear on Andersen.

Leafs Know they Need to Finish First

When it comes to the NHL’s playoff format, the Leafs have quickly discovered that the easiest road to the Stanley Cup Final is to finish first in their division.

Toronto’s Record vs Boston and Tampa Bay

In 2017 they jumped in as a feel-good second Wild Card. It gave a young nucleus great experience against a grizzled Capitals team. Last year, they were the third seed in the Atlantic. In a pivotal Game 7, that meant no home ice advantage.

It’s widely assumed that the Leafs, Lightning and Bruins will all be fighting it out in the Atlantic.

It’s widely assumed that the Leafs, Lightning and Bruins will all be fighting it out in the Atlantic. They’ve got four games against each, and need to finish better than 4-4.

Previous NHL Eastern and Western Conference Champions

Are the Leafs worth the money?

Right now, no.

In the past two seasons combined, Frederik Anderson has finished October 8-7-3. While the record is okay, the peripherals are not.

Last year his goals-against average was 3.46, paired with a .896 save percentage. The year before? He had a 3.67 GAA and a .879 save percentage in the first month.

#Leafs Frederik Andersen is 11-3-1 since the start of November (2.10 GAA, .940 SV% & 2 SO) after going 6-5-0 in October (3.46 GAA, .896 SV% & 1 SO).

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) 12 December 2017

He’s going to start slow. And when he does? That’s when you pounce.

Projecting the a team that hasn’t made it out of the first round in two years to win the Stanley Cup is tough. But if you have faith in them, they’ll be worth the money if Freddie starts slow.

Who Else Could Pose a Threat in the East?

In the meantime, you can hedge your bets with the Lightning and the Philadelphia Flyers (+2500) in the East.

The Bolts are talented and battle-tested. And Philly? With the Capitals and Penguins going on deep runs the past three years, they could capitalize. Some will like the Blue Jackets, but they’re in an awkward spot with their stars.

But take advantage of the times when you can make money on the Leafs. Because if the next few years go according to plan, they aren’t going to be offering much value.