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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds, Pick & Prediction (Apr 11)

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NHL Hockey

Updated Apr 11, 2023 · 10:45 AM PDT

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews shoots the puck
Apr 8, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) shoots the puck against the Montreal Canadiens in the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Tuesday’s NHL action
  • The Lightning are favored in this first-round playoff series preview
  • Read on for all the odds and trends ahead of this Atlantic Division matchup at Amalie Arena

A preview of a first-round playoff matchup between Atlantic Division rivals highlights the NHL schedule on Tuesday as the Tampa Bay Lightning play host to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Maple Leafs have clinched second place in the divisional standings and home-ice advantage in their upcoming playoff clash with the Lightning during a 3-0-1 run, capped by Monday’s 2-1 overtime win over Florida. The Lightning saw their late-season woes continue with Saturday’s 7-4 loss in Ottawa that extends their current losing streak to three games. However, the Bolts recorded dominating wins in each of their past two on home ice.

Start time is set for 7:00pm ET at Amalie Arena, with all the action televised on ESPN and TSN.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds

Game Time (ET) Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Tuesday, April 11 Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-200) O 6.5 (-110) +120
7:00 PM Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+170) U 6.5 (-1110) -140

The Lightning return home from last week’s brutal road trip perched as -140 favorites in the NHL odds. The Leafs trail as +120 underdogs, and the total is pegged at 6.5.

 

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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on April 11, 2023.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Recent History

Tuesday night’s matchup marks the third and final regular-season meeting between these divisional rivals. Each club posted a home victory over their first two dates of the season, capped by the Leafs’ 4-1 win in Toronto on December 20.

However, the Lightning hold a slight edge in recent clashes, winning three of the past five including two straight on home ice. The total has reached 7.0 or higher on four occasions during a 4-1 run for the UNDER.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Outlook

The Maple Leafs survived an offensive onslaught by a desperate Panthers squad in Monday night’s action. Needing a win to clinch a playoff spot, Florida put the Leafs back on their heels while outshooting Toronto by a 42-22 margin in regulation time. However, the Panthers were unable to solve Ilya Samsonov, who turned in a third straight stellar performance in the crease, during which he stopped 116 of 120 total shots.

With Matt Murray still sidelined by injury, Samsonov is once again expected to get the start on a second straight night for the first time this season, and his third start in four nights. The Leafs have produced mixed results when playing in the back half of games scheduled on consecutive nights. The club has won three of four, but scored just 12 total goals over that stretch.

However, Auston Matthews looks to be heating up. Matthews scored his 40th goal of the season on Monday, and has recorded three goals and seven points over his past five games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Outlook

The Lightning have been brutal on the road of late. The club was outscored by a wide 19-8 margin while getting swept on the three-game road trip that wrapped up with Saturday’s loss to the Sens. But as bad as they have been on the road, the Bolts have been equally good in recent home dates, scoring five times in three of the four games during a 3-1 run at home.

When they hit home ice on Tuesday, they are likely to be led by a well-rested Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning’s star goaltender has had the past two games off after getting rocked for all six goals in last Wednesday’s 6-3 loss in New York, and has stopped 58 of 69 total shots while recording two straight wins at home.

Team captain Steve Stamkos is coming off a three-point night in Ottawa, and has recorded five points over his past four home appearances.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction

While there is nothing to be settled in the standings for either of these teams, Tuesday’s contest provides an opportunity to stir up emotions before the NHL playoffs start next week.

While both these teams would like to make statements, look for both coaches to keep one eye on next week, and provide role players with much-needed ice time.

That makes this a tough game to bet enough, but a good opportunity for UNDER bettors and Leafs fans to make a value wager on the underdog Buds.

The Pick: Leafs (+120); UNDER 6.5 (+110)

 

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