New York Islanders (+870) Now Among Top-Four Favorites to Win 2020 Eastern Conference Title; Can NYI Keep This Up?
- The New York Islanders sit second in the Metropolitan Division
- A 13-game point streak has seen their odds to win the Eastern Conference shift
- Are the Islanders a good buy? Or is their success unsustainable
While the NHL season is just a month-and-a-half old, the New York Islanders have quickly become one of the best stories.
A year after losing their captain, and then Robin Lehner walking in free agency, most thought reality would finally hit them.
But Barry Trotz has again proven he’s one of the NHL’s best coaches.
The Islanders are flying, fresh off of a 10-game win streak and points in 13-straight.
They’ve got oddsmakers paying attention.
2019/20 Eastern Conference Odds
| Team | Record | Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 8-5-2 | 18 | +450 |
| Boston Bruins | 11-3-4 | 26 | +450 |
| Washington Capitals | 14-2-4 | 32 | +500 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 9-7-4 | 22 | +600 |
| New York Islanders | 13-3-1 | 27 | +800 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 10-6-2 | 22 | +1200 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 10-7-1 | 21 | +1200 |
| Florida Panthers | 9-4-5 | 23 | +1200 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 9-6-2 | 20 | +1600 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 10-5-3 | 23 | +1600 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 10-5-3 | 23 | +2000 |
| New Jersey Devils | 5-7-4 | 14 | +3500 |
| New York Rangers | 8-6-2 | 18 | +4000 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 6-8-4 | 16 | +6000 |
| Ottawa Senators | 7-10-1 | 15 | +15000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 7-13-1 | 15 | +25000 |
All odds taken Nov. 13
The Islanders have seen some of the most significant movement in their NHL Eastern Conference Odds.
A week into the season, they slipped to +1500. Now they’ve jumped up to +870,
That’s better than Washington (+990 to +580), but not as good as the Sabres (+3500 to +2200).
But there are some troubling trends and underlying numbers that could cause bettors to avoid their recent surge.
Analytics Don’t Add Up to Continued Success
New York averaged 1.7 goals-against over their 10-game win streak. They allowed more than two goals just once.
They were also outshot in seven of those games, giving up 30+ shots six times.
New York Islanders’ 10 Game Win Streak
| Time Frame | Corsi For | Corsi % | Scoring Chances For | Scoring Chances Against | High Danger Chances For | High Danger Chances Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 – Nov 5 | 497 (30th) | 44.98% (30th) | 260 (26th) | 281 (19th) | 135 (7th) | 100 (28th) |
| 2018/19 | 4328 (30th) | 47.52% (26th) | 2,257 (12th) | 2,310 (9th) | 1,027 (6th) | 935 (12th) |
*NHL Rank in brackets
**Statistics from Natural Stattrick
In terms of shots, there was a -27 difference between shots-for and against.
While the Islanders were fairly balanced when it came to scoring chances and high danger chances, their PDO was clicking at 1.067.
For those that aren’t familiar:
…The sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. PDO is based on the theory that most teams will regress toward a sum of 100; often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is.
To be fair, they finished with a 1.019 PDO last year, which was second in the NHL to Tampa Bay. Although slight, expect some regression.
Will Lack of Scoring Doom New York Islanders?
While teams win in a variety of ways, you still have to score. And the Islanders can struggle with that.
In fact, here’s the East teams they’d outscored entering Wednesday: Ottawa, Detroit, Columbus and New Jersey. None have more than 16 points.
#Isles' Mathew Barzal fakes out a pair of #FlaPanthers, including Sergei Bobrovsky, and scores a slick back-hand goal ? pic.twitter.com/6VAPI4K56m
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 9, 2019
The Islanders have 27. It also helps that they’ve allowed 12-fewer goals than the next best team in the Conference (Pittsburgh).
New York Islanders Scoring Projections
| Player | Games Played | Points | 82-game Pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal | 17 | 16 | 77 |
| Josh Bailey | 17 | 13 | 63 |
| Brock Nelson | 17 | 12 | 58 |
| Derick Brassard | 17 | 11 | 53 |
The fact they have Mathew Barzal is a miracle. Last year New York was one of 11 teams to not feature a 70-point player. Just three made the playoffs. Now they’ve got that covered.
? The #Isles goalie tandem of Thomas Greiss and Semyon Varlamov are in the League's top 10 for save percentage and goals against average. Greiss's 1.88 GAA and .942 save percentage lead the NHL.
Greiss has a 7-1-0 record and Varlamov has a 5-2-1 record. pic.twitter.com/NPyvcysFHJ
— Sasha Kandrach (@KandrachSasha) November 12, 2019
But they also relied on Robin Lehner, who had a stellar season. At this point Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss are replicating that.
Greiss we can trust, as he teamed with Lehner. But Varlamov has had a volatile save percentage, and a GAA that’s been over 2.60 consistently since 2015/16.
Is he just a ticking time bomb?
New York Islanders Still a ‘Wait and See’ in East
While they pushed their way into the second round of the playoffs last year, that still looks like the ceiling for the Isles.
They’ll likely finish second or third in the Metro. That means the Penguins in the first round. And barring a 2019-like upset, facing the Capitals next.
The islanders have the most average looking on paper team I have ever seen… how this team is 11-3 is beyond me
— Brandon☘ (@boleary27) November 9, 2019
And then? The Lightning, Bruins, or Maple Leafs in the Conference Finals.
The Islanders are a structured team with good pieces. They can win a round. Or two.
But they won’t represent the East in the Stanley Cup Final.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
