Odds Favor Largest Contract in NHL Free Agency Being Over $59.5 Million
- Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene headline UFA class
- Brayden Point, Mitch Marner top RFA’s available
- Will anyone sign for more than $59.5 million?
NHL Free Agency kicks off on July 1, and there are some impact players out there. The likes of Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Sergei Bobrovsky and Joe Pavelski among the unrestricted free agents (UFA). But, the restricted free agents (RFA) class is even better. There, Tampa Bay Lighting standout, Brayden Point, Toronto Maple Leaf, Mitch Marner, and Carolina Hurricane, Sebastian Aho are all available.
So, will any of those players get more than $59.5 million? According to sports books, they believe so.
How Much Will the Largest Deal Be Worth?
| Contract Value | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over $59.5 Million | -150 |
| Under $59.5 Million | +110 |
*Odds Taken 06/27/19
Biggest Contracts From Past 3 Years
In 2016, the biggest free agent available was Tampa Bay Lighting center, Steven Stamkos. He was the face of the franchise and a player who was destined to make an impact wherever he went. Ultimately, he decided to stay with Tampa Bay and got the most amount of money in free agency where he signed an eight-year deal worth $68 million.
Meanwhile, Kyle Okposo and Milan Lucic got the most amount of money of free agents to not re-sign as both got seven-year deals worth $42 million.
Kevin Shattenkirk was headlining the 2017 class where he signed with the New York Rangers for four-years for $26.6 million. While Karl Alzner was close behind signing a five-year deal with the Canadiens for $23.1 million.
2018 saw John Tavares leave the New York Islanders for the Toronto Maple Leafs as he signed a seven-year deal worth $77 million. Next closest was the five-year $35 million the Philadelphia Flyers gave to James Van Riemsdyk.
Which Players Have a Chance at the Over?
Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Artemi Panarin, and Matt Duchene all have a very good chance of getting over $59.5 million. Both Marner and Point are RFA’s but are key parts to their team’s success.
With Marner, it seems likely he wants into the $10 million range, and even if he gets $9 million over eight years, he will be well over the $59.5 million. Same goes for Brayden Point who seems likely to re-sign in Tampa, and if it is a long-term deal, he will most definitely be over.
As for the unrestricted free agents, Panarin and Duchene have a good shot at doing it. Both are still relatively young, 27 and 28 respectively, so both could land seven-year deals. With a seven-year deal, there is a good chance they get over the $8.5 million they need to get over $59.5 million.
What’s the Best Bet?
With the likes of Mitch Marner and Brayden Point being RFA’s and their respective teams wanting to keep them, they will get over the $59.5 million barring they re-sign a long-term deal. So, although I believe it will be over, if the two of them sign a bridge deal, it could be under so there is value on the under at plus-money..
Pick: Over (-150)
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
