Ovechkin New Rocket Richard Trophy Favorite (+200); Pastrnak (+225) Still Has Five-Goal Lead
- David Pastrnak leads the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy with 25 goals
- Despite trailing by five, Alex Ovechkin currently has the best odds to win
- Does the best value lie with Pastrnak, Ovechkin or somewhere else?
Alex Ovechkin and the Rocket Richard Trophy are almost synonymous at this point.
The award for leading the NHL in goals has been handed out 20 times. Since entering the NHL, Ovechkin has won it eight times.
While he’s in the hunt, a third of the way into the NHL season, there’s a new name atop the NHL goal race.
2019/20 Rocket Richard Trophy Odds
| Player | 2019/20 Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin, WAS | 20 | +200 |
| David Pastrnak, BOS | 25 | +225 |
| Connor McDavid, EDM | 19 | +350 |
| Auston Matthews, TOR | 16 | +375 |
| Leon Draisaitl, EDM | 18 | +550 |
| Brad Marchand, BOS | 18 | +750 |
| Nathan MacKinnon, COL | 17 | +1800 |
| Jack Eichel, BUF | 16 | +2200 |
| Patrick Kane, CHI | 14 | +3300 |
| Jake Guentzel, PIT | 15 | +3300 |
Odds taken December 2; Goals scored entering December 2
At the beginning of the season, David Pastrnak was an afterthought on the Rocket Richard odds. He sat well back at +2500, while Ovechkin was at a comfortable +600.
The Bruins superstar’s torrid start, however, has him a slight second to Ovechkin despite a five-goal difference.
What Vegas is wondering, is what happens as Pastrnak quickly approaches uncharted territory.
David Pastrnak’s Past Four Seasons
| Season | Games Played | Goals | PPG | GWG | Goals per 82 Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 27 | 25 | 12 | 5 | 76 |
| 2018/19 | 66 | 38 | 17 | 4 | 47.2 |
| 2017/18 | 82 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 35 |
| 2016/17 | 75 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 37.2 |
The important number to consider here isn’t Pastrnak’s current pace, because that’s simply unsustainable. It’s the fact that Pastrnak’s goals per 82 games has gradually increased over his career.
Over his first three seasons, it went from 17.8 to 24, to settling at 37.2 in year three. After that slight dip, he shot up last year.
David Pastrnak of the @NHLBruins is the eighth different player in the last 30 years to reach the 25-goal mark in 27 or fewer games. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/MWn0fGksgQ
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) December 2, 2019
If we’re treating 50 goals as the threshold for a serious Rocket Richard Trophy contender, then his early-season pace and constant improvement make him a legitimate threat.
In fact, Pastrnak’s goals-per-game would have to drop from 0.926 to .436 for him to not hit 50 this year.
Breaking Down Alex Ovechkin’s 2019/20
| Games | Goals | PPG | Shots | Goals per Game | Shots Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | 5 | 2 | 30 | .71 | 4.29 |
| 8-14 | 6 | 2 | 40 | .86 | 5.71 |
| 15-21 | 3 | 2 | 35 | .43 | 5.00 |
| 22-28 | 6 | 2 | 30 | .86 | 4.29 |
Entering Monday’s action, Alex Ovechkin was out-shooting Pastrnak 135-108. That’s almost a full shot-per-game difference with Ovechkin at 4.8 and Pastrnak at 4.0.
If he’s going to make up the five-goal difference, that’s how it’s going to happen.
Number of times Alex Ovechkin has had the following shot total:
0 shots: 13 times
1 shot: 53 times
2 shots: 128 times
3 shots: 157 times
4 shots: 178 times
5 shots: 189 times
6 shots: 147 times
7 shots: 100 times
8 shots: 63 times
9 shots: 34 times
10+ shots: 49 times— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) November 30, 2019
Over the last three seasons, Ovechkin has averaged 3.8, 4.3 and 4.1 shots per game. In the same stretch, Pastrnak has posted averages of 3.5, 3.0 and 3.5.
So if you side with The Great 8 in this debate, there’s good reason to feel confident.
The Longshots in the Rocket Richard Trophy Race
With two months gone in the NHL season, it could take a serious hot-streak from one of those trailing to make up ground.
While Connor McDavid has him by a goal so far, teammate Leon Draisaitl may be the better bet in Edmonton. McDavid is undoubtedly the better and more consistent player, but Draisaitl is a pure finisher. And he’s got McDavid as his set-up man.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are off to a HISTORIC start. ? pic.twitter.com/gyGMdmKsS1
— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) December 2, 2019
The two have 19 and 18 goals respectively. They’re both on-pace for 50 goal seasons, and it’s fair to expect both to get there. But are either a threat to win?
Slight Underdog Pastrnak the Way to Go for Rocket Richard Trophy
When we explored the odds in late October, Pastrnak had the goal lead and we pointed you in the direction of Ovechkin.
While it’s still a smart idea to back the greatest goal-scorer of all-time, it’s time to start investing in Pastrnak.
Clapper from the hashmarks.
Absolutely savage stuff from David Pastrnak (@pastrnak96). pic.twitter.com/1IV4gCjAd1
— NHL (@NHL) December 2, 2019
Some could write off his play as a hot streak, but he’s a young player with a steadily-improving track record. And just a third of the way into the season, he’s halfway to the 50-goal plateau.
Like the other names on this list, he’s playing big-time minutes as a featured piece of a dangerous offense. And stealing the goal-scoring crown from Ovechkin would be the perfect way to mark his arrival.
The Pick: David Pastrnak (+260)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
