Hurricanes Jump Into Top-8 Stanley Cup Favorites (+1600); Winless Devils Fall Out of Top Half (+2700)
- There have already been significant changes in the 2019 Stanley Cup odds
- Some long shots have seen steady improvement, like the Carolina Hurricanes
- When it comes to the Cup, who provides the best early-season value?
While it’s still October, there has been plenty of movement when it comes to the 2019 Stanley Cup odds.
The Buffalo Sabres have soared out to a 5-0-1 record. The Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks are atop the Pacific, while the Sharks are looking up.
And the Storm Surge has taken over the Metropolitan, again, as the Carolina Hurricanes have lost just twice so far.
2020 Stanley Cup Odds
| Team | Record | Odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning** | 3-2-1 (7 points) | +750 | +800 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs** | 4-3-1- (9 points) | +750 | +1200 |
| Vegas Golden Knights** | 4-3-0 (8 points) | +800 | +1000 |
| Colorado Avalanche** | 5-0-1 (11 points) | +800 | +1400 |
| Boston Bruins** | 5-1-0 (10 points) | +900 | +1000 |
| St. Louis Blues** | 5-1-0 (10 points) | +1400 | +1400 |
| Carolina Hurricanes** | 6-2-0 (12 points) | +1600 | +1600 |
| Washington Capitals** | 4-2-2 (10 points) | +1800 | +1600 |
| Nashville Predators** | 4-2-0 (8 points) | +1800 | +2000 |
| Dallas Stars | 1-6-1 (3 points) | +2000 | +3300 |
| Edmonton Oilers** | 6-1-0 (12 points) | +2000 | +2000 |
| Florida Panthers | 2-2-2 (6 points) | +2200 | +3300 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins** | 5-2-0 (10 points) | +2200 | +2000 |
| San Jose Sharks | 3-4-0 (6 points) | +2500 | +2000 |
| Winnipeg Jets** | 4-4-0 (8 points) | +2500 | +2000 |
| Calgary Flames** | 3-3-1 (7 points | +2500 | +2500 |
*Odds taken 10/16/2019. **Currently in Playoff Spot
In the West, we’ve seen Central-leading Colorado improve from +1200 to +800. SBD’s Stanley Cup odds tracker hasn’t been as kind to the defending champs; the Blues have started to slip, falling from +1200 to +1500.
A lot of money came in on New Jersey throughout the off-season. They rose from +7500, all the way to +2800.
Teams that are worse than the New Jersey Devils defensively right now:
— Devils Insiders (@DevilsInsiders) October 14, 2019
They’ve leveled off, and haven’t really shown a reason for you to trust that off-season money.
Will ‘Canes Continue to Prove Us Wrong?
So far, so good for Carolina. It’s fair to say we were lukewarm on the Hurricanes’ playoff odds ahead of the season. But could this start have them Stanley Cup bound?
The scoring has been balanced with Andrei Svechnikov (1G, 7A, 8GP) looking like a true superstar in the making. Encouragingly, the Canes are winning while 2018-19 leading scorer Sebastian Aho has been quiet (1G, 3A).
3 fantasy hockey takeaways from last night:
– Svechnikov looks way more comfortable this season than last
– I thought Mrazek would be the Canes' starter, but he and Reimer have looked more like a 1A and 1B
– Hoffman is excelling on the Panthers' line 1 with Barkov and Huberdeau— Steven Psihogios (@StevenPsihogios) October 12, 2019
But there are still questions about whether their goaltending will hold up. If Petr Mrazek (and James Reimer, to some extent) keep this going, they’ll get Carolina into the playoffs. But it’s still tough to see them taking the Hurricanes to a Cup Final.
Do We Trust Cup-tested Penguins, Capitals?
Despite winning three of the last four Stanley Cups, the Caps and Pens find themselves behind in the odds.
Washington is technically above .500, but have lost twice in regulation and twice in overtime.
They’ve been scoring (26 goals-for, fifth in the East), but they’ve given up the third-most goals of any team in a playoff spot, and third-most in the conference.
Braden Holtby vs Ilya Samsonov
| 5/5 | GP/Starts | 4/3 |
| 1-1-2 | W-L-OT | 3-1-0 |
| .846 | Save Percentage | .933 |
| 4.27 | Goals-Against Average | 1.84 |
| 1 | Quality Starts | 3 |
| -6.94 | Goals Saved Above Average | 2.85 |
Capitals’ studio analyst Brent Johnson joined TSN 1050 Wednesday morning, saying that the Caps were playing better in front of Ilya Samsonov than Braden Holtby. He doesn’t expect that to last.
Despite the gap, Todd Reirden shut down any questions about who his number one tender is on Wednesday .
It’s not a goaltending controversy at this point…Braden’s our number one goalie. – Todd Reirden
Given his history, we wouldn’t expect Holtby’s struggles to last for long.
Crosby Looking for Ring Number Four
I was cold on Crosby’s supporting cast before the season. So far, his play has elevated the Pens to a 5-2 start with a +10 goal differential.
2019-20 Scoring Leaders: Forwards
| Player | GP | Goals | Assists | Points | Point Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid, EDM | 7 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 2.0 |
| Leon Draisaitl, EDM | 7 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 1.9 |
| Sidney Crosby, PIT | 7 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1.4 |
| Mark Scheifele, WPG | 8 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1.2 |
| Patrik Laine, WPG | 8 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1.3 |
The question with Pittsburgh becomes which happens first: does Crosby slow down, or his teammates catch up?
Along with Crosby, only Kris Letang (eight) and Jake Guentzel (seven) have played in all seven games and produced at a point-per-game level. Justin Schultz is the only other regular on a 50-point pace.
NO YOU DID NOT, SIDNEY CROSBY! ?
?: NBCSN
?: https://t.co/WSkKCdFgdb pic.twitter.com/QGEIskKqCy— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) October 16, 2019
Provided Matt Murray stays healthy, Pittsburgh should have home-ice advantage in at least the first round.
Who Stands Out in Early Stanley Cup Odds?
The prices for Washington (+1800) and Pittsburgh (+2200) stand out. I like those numbers better than Carolina’s.
A deeper dive sees the Panthers at +3300 in one sportsbook. Once Sergei Bobrovsky settles in, they should control one of the two Wild Card spots.
In the West, I like Colorado among the favorites. If the defense and goaltending hold up, they should play at least one series with home-ice advantage come playoff time.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
