Updated Odds to Win 2020 Stanley Cup Ahead of First-Round of Playoffs

• Sixteen teams are still in contention for the 2020 Stanley Cup after the qualification round
• The Boston Bruins, who were as short as +400, are now as long as +800 after losing all three of their seeding games
• Are underdogs a good value bet after pulling upsets in the qualifying series?

The NHL’s qualifying series were wildly entertaining as a number of underdogs delivered. The round-robin games to determine the top-four seeds in each conference also produced some surprising results.

As the round of 16 begins tomorrow (August 11th), the 2020 Stanley Cup odds look considerably different from where they stood last week.

2020 Stanley Cup Odds

Odds as of Aug. 10, 2020.

Bruins Odds Fading After Shaky Start

The Boston Bruins were one of the surprises from the seeding round as they lost all three of their games. As a result, the team that had the most points in the standings heading into the bubble (the only team with 100 points or more) is now the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Their odds were as short +400 at one point this season but, with no home-ice advantage (22-4-9 at home this season) and a winless showing in the round robin, they’re now at +800.

It’s also concerning that a team that averaged 3.24 goals per game in the regular season has scored just four so far in three games in the bubble. As the #4 seed, they face an extremely dangerous Carolina Hurricanes team in the first round. Carolina was the only team to sweep its best-of-five qualification series, dispatching the NY Rangers in three lopsided games.

Golden Knights Odds Shorten as They Claim No. 1 Seed

While the Bruins stumbled in the round robin, the Golden Knights were impressive. Not only did they win all three of their games – beating St. Louis, Colorado and Dallas – they scored a whopping 15 goals in those contests. They now have the #1 seed in the West and have seen their odds shorten to +550.

Remember that the Golden Knights had a disappointing start to the 2019-20 season but entered the hiatus on a roll. They were just 28-22-8 on February 11th but then won 11 of their last 13 games going into the break. Add in three more wins in the bubble and they’re on a roll right now.

They will face the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round, who upset the Edmonton Oilers, 3-1, in the qualifiers. Chicago was seven points out of a playoff spot when coronavirus hit and had the worst goal-differential (-6) of all the Western Conference teams that were given a spot in the qualifiers.

Are Underdogs a Good Bet?

The general consensus going into the 16-team playoffs is that underdogs are offering a lot of value, both on the series prices and for the Stanley Cup futures. That’s because almost all of the big favorites in the opening round – the Pittsburgh Penguins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Edmonton Oilers – lost their qualifying series.

At this point, playing on a neutral site, no home-ice advantage, and all of the teams thrown for a loop in a really weird year, bettors think that almost anyone has a shot. That’s why seeing value with a quality defensive team like the New York Islanders at 23/1 or the upstart Carolina Hurricanes at 13/1 is quite understandable.

Bruins Are Still a Good Bet

I’ve gone back and forth thinking about where the value is and I really think the Bruins will get it together in the next round. I like them at this price since there’s been a bit of a pull back. They do have to go through the Hurricanes but the Bruins own them. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Will it be easy? Absolutely not but I think they’ve knocked the rust off. Carolina starter Petr Mrazek has a career .888 save percentage against the Bruins. Backup James Reimer is better at .929 but he has a career 2.87 GAA against them in playoff meetings. Boston should have a huge edge in net with Vezina-favorite Tuukka Rask.

If they wake up and get by this round, they will be among the favorites again, so I see there being a bit of value here. They were the best team in the NHL this season and that should shine through now that the games really count.