Odds Move in Favor of 2020 Olympics Being Canceled; Italy Favored to Withdraw First

• The odds of the Tokyo Olympics taking place are getting longer as the COVID-19 crisis deepens
• Italy has emerged as the favorite to be the first country to withdraw
• Get all the odds and insight into what lies ahead for Tokyo 2020 in the story below

The International Olympic Committee has remained steadfast in its intention to hold the 2020 Summer Olympic Games as scheduled, starting in late July. But with much of the world now switching to crisis mode as the COVID-19 outbreak widens, the odds of the Tokyo Olympics eventually being cancelled have dramatically shortened to -300.

Odds 2020 Tokyo Olympics Are Cancelled

Odds taken on March 18, 2020. If the Olympics do not take place in 2020, “No” will be graded as the winner.

IOC Remains Optimistic

On Tuesday, the IOC issued a communique expressing its optimism that the Games would not be disrupted, stating “there is no need for any drastic decisions at this stage; and any speculation at this moment would be counter-productive”.

However, with the number of confirmed coronavirus cases growing, particularly in Western Europe and the United States, it is far from certain that the Olympics will move forward as scheduled.

IOC committed to Tokyo 2020 Games, no need for 'drastic decisions' https://t.co/EoPEAIL1mU pic.twitter.com/BecguN95sE

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 18, 2020

France became the third European nation to shut down on Tuesday, implementing a 15-day lockdown requiring people to remain at home. France joins Spain and Italy, which have each taken drastic measures to battle COVID-19, which has now infected over 207,000 people worldwide, resulting in over 8,200 deaths.

Sports Leagues Leading the Way in COVID-19 Battle

Sports leagues have been among the first to recognize the danger presented by coronavirus. The NBA was the first league to suspend play a week ago, with countless leagues across all major sports following suit.

The US Centers for Disease Control called for all events attended by 50 or more people to be cancelled for at least the next eight weeks, placing in doubt the possibility of the sports world rebounding anytime soon.

BREAKING: The CDC is recommending gatherings of 50 or more people over the next 8 weeks be POSTPONED or CANCELLED. https://t.co/sJyCRhLtDw pic.twitter.com/eXjgtd4z6d

— Shira Stein (@shiramstein) March 15, 2020

Further complicating matters is the relatively small number of athletes who  have actually qualified to compete in Tokyo. With a growing number of sporting events now suspended, reports indicate just 57% of athletes have qualified for Tokyo 2020, creating yet another obstacle for organizers in their bid to hold the games on schedule.

The current odds stand in stark contrast to the high level of confidence held by politicians, sports leagues, and oddsmakers just three weeks ago. With the COVID-19 outbreak largely limited to Asia at that point, the odds of the Tokyo Olympics moving forward as planned sat at -110 on Feb. 26.

Japan Not Spared

Indeed, Japan itself has not been spared from the outbreak. As of midday Wednesday, the nation had 889 confirmed cases, including over 700 confirmed cases in host city Tokyo, and reported 29 deaths.

Top Japanese Olympics official Kozo Tashima has coronavirus in ominous 2020 sign https://t.co/9VrKWkmvUg pic.twitter.com/XcwC0Jowhk

— New York Post (@nypost) March 17, 2020

Among the prominent Japanese sports figures confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 is Japan Football Association Chairman Kozo Tashima, who also serves as vice president of the Japanese Olympic Committee.

The J-League, Japan’s top-flight professional soccer league, suspended play on February 27, while Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) has shut down spring training and delayed the start of its 2020 season.

Odds on First Country to Withdraw from Tokyo 2020 Olympics

China Turning the Corner as Crisis Worsens in US

China’s progress in battling COVID-19 has been encouraging in recent days, with the number of new cases dropping. The world’s most-populous nation undertook unprecedented steps in its bid to halt the spread of the virus, and is now hopeful that the worst is over.

But with the number of active cases still numbering in the tens of thousands, and considerable work to be done to bring the country back to normal, China (+500 odds) remains among the favorites to be the first nation to decide to not send athletes to the Tokyo Olympics.

UPDATES: Italy, where residents are on lockdown amid the pandemic, is reporting 475 new coronavirus deaths in the last 24 hours.

That brings Italy's total of COVID-19 fatalities to 2,978, and the total of confirmed cases in Italy has soared to 35,713 https://t.co/eJZgtNUTP5 pic.twitter.com/Q70XREW4EN

— Yahoo News (@YahooNews) March 18, 2020

Italy has emerged as the epicentre of the outbreak in Europe, with over 35,000 cases and almost 3,000 deaths reported. With that nation’s lockdown continuing, and the outbreak showing no signs of abating, Italy leads the way as a +200 favorite to be the first country to bow out of Tokyo 2020.

Work by @ianfmiller1 with @adbecks and Bryan Grenfell mapping out where severe cases of COVID-19 concentrate across the United States, if demography and the age profile of morbidity are the only drivers: pic.twitter.com/iCBMYadHnA

— JessMet (@CJEMetcalf) March 18, 2020

But as the crisis worsens in the United States, where the number of confirmed cases has ballooned from 4,200 to approximately 7,000 in less than 48 hours, the worst is likely yet to come. The bleak prospects of a growing death toll and a nationwide lockdown have forced the US government to hunker down and close its borders, adding unenviable value to a +900 wager on the United States becoming the first nation to bow out of the Tokyo Olympics.

Picks: Tokyo Olympics to be cancelled (-300); USA first nation to withdraw (+900)