GOP Slightly Favored to Control Senate after 2020 Election; Democrats -280 to Control House

• Although the main focus is on the presidential election in 2020, there will be many Senate and House seats up for grabs too
• The Senate is currently controlled by the Republicans 53-47
• See odds and predictions for if the Democrats can flip enough seats to win the Senate in 2020 below

Although much of the focus during the November is centered around the presidency, the truth is that the votes for the Senate and House races will mostly decide what happens in the United States over the next four years. As of now the 2020 election odds show that the GOP will control the senate after November. Are they the right bet for this prop?

Odds to Win US Senate In 2020

All odds as of Mar. 19.

The biggest challenge that the Democrats face in the 2020 Senate race is that they’re already trailing. The Republicans technically have a 53-45 edge but it’s really 53-47 as two independents – Bernie Sanders and Angus King – are basically Democrats. That means that the Democrats have to flip three seats.

Also, it’s important to note who will have the presidency in 2020 because the Vice President is the tiebreaking vote. In other words, if President Donald Trump and the Republicans win the presidency again, Vice President Mike Pence will always be the tiebreaking vote and give the Republicans a 51-50 edge. If the Democrats win, they’ll hold that edge.

There Are 17 Races Worth Monitoring

While there are lots of senators up for reelection in 2020, there’s really only 17 – at most – that bare monitoring. The other 18 figure to be slam dunks for either party. While Democrats have hopes of ousting Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, it’s a complete and utter long shot.

Even in the 17 other races, there are really only a few tossups. Guys like John Cornyn and Tom Udall might be in a little bit of danger, it’s minimal. The main races that we’re looking at is Doug Jones in Alabama, Martha McSally in Arizona, Cory Gardner in Colorado, Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

From all recent polls, the McSally seat should be flipped. Susan Collins looks like she’s going to be ousted in Maine as well. Cory Gardner is probably also on his way out, according to recent polls. Those are probably the three best bets for Democrats to flip.

Another one that should be interesting is Kelly Loeffler in Georgia. She was just busted selling her stocks days before the coronavirus pandemic hit, so she could find herself in hot water. She was previously in good-but-fragile shape, but this could put her seat up for grabs.

It is stomach-churning that the first thoughts these Senators had to a dire & classified #COVID briefing was how to profit off this crisis.

They didn’t mobilize to help families, or prep response. They dumped stock.

Sen. Loeffler needs to resign, too. https://t.co/3lx1Bjt4be

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) March 20, 2020

The challenge here is that Democrats need to flip at least three seats and win the presidency, but Doug Jones is not going to do them any favors. There’s almost no way Jones wins in Alabama as all recent polling shows that he gets smoked. And if Republicans flip anything else or maintain their other seats, Democrats face an uphill battle.

Odds to Win US House of Representatives In 2020

In terms of the house, I really wouldn’t be expecting Republicans to regain control. The current numbers show that the Democrats have 179 seats in great shape, and anywhere from another 29 to 43 leaning in their direction. After that, there are 21 more tossups. The key number is to get to about 207 and the Republicans don’t have a clear path to that.

What’s the Best Bet?

At this point, I would bet on the Republicans to win the Senate in 2020 and the Democrats to hold onto the House. The Republicans don’t really have much of a shot at the House and because of Doug Jones, I don’t really see the Democrats pulling it off in the Senate.