Joe Biden Favored to Win Nevada Democratic Caucus & South Carolina Primary

• Joe Biden leads by +17.0 in South Carolina and +5.7 in Nevada, according to the latest polls
• Iowa and New Hampshire primaries will be key as the candidate that wins those will be able to build some momentum
• The impeachment trial will keep Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar off the campaign trail

Although Bernie Sanders has surged in the polls recently, Joe Biden is still the favorite to win the Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary. With Biden struggling across the board and other candidates catching up, is Biden a good bet to win in those states or is there value elsewhere?

2020 South Carolina Primary Odds

Odds taken Jan 14.

How Will Early Primaries Impact South Carolina, Nevada?

The biggest challenge to Biden is that he’s the presumptive Democratic Party nominee as he’s been leading the entire way, but he’s going to take a hit when the numbers don’t fall his way in the early primaries.

While he leads nationally, different polls show Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders as winning in Iowa, which is the first caucus. As for the race in New Hampshire, the race is neck-in-neck as well. If Biden can win at least one of these primaries, he’ll be in good shape in the Nevada and South Carolina. The challenge is if he can’t win either.

The candidates looking to close ground on Biden have been trying to turn the tide and a win in these two primaries could change the momentum. It’ll look odd if we’re at the third primary and Biden has yet to notch a win. However, if he does, in fact, beat back Mayor Pete and Sanders in the first two primaries, Biden will get on an early roll.

Iowa Debate Will Be Key

We’re heading into another key debate on Tuesday night, which will take place in Iowa. That will also be the first primary, so this is arguably the most important debate of the campaign so far. With the races getting very close in the first two primaries, how the candidates perform tonight will directly impact their chances.

How Will Impeachment Trial Impact the Race?

Now that the impeachment trial for President Trump is heading towards the senate, it will be interesting to see who gets impacted by this the most. On one hand, Biden could get hit hard if witnesses are called and his son, Hunter, who is the center of some controversy in Ukraine, is called to testify.

While that’s unknown, what is know is that a number of Biden’s key competitors – Senators Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar – will all be off the campaign trail. Remember, the Senate is the jury for the impeachment trial, which means those senators will have to be there every day instead of campaigning.

While a lot of states will be in play, I’m not expecting South Carolina to be a close race. South Carolina is virtually in the bag for Biden as nobody there wants any candidates that are more left of him in that state. Almost all the candidates are. He’s also former President Barack Obama’s Vice President, so that’s going to be heavy in his favor.

Of the early poll numbers we have from any of the states, South Carolina is his biggest lead. Biden has been fading but not so much in this state. This one will be a win for him.

2020 Nevada Caucus Odds

As far as Nevada goes, the race is more open but not by much. Biden has a six-point lead there (compared to 17 in South Carolina). I still don’t see anyone really closing the ground there. Warren and Sanders have faded recently, according to the latest Nevada polls, while Buttigieg is way too far behind.

At this point, I’d bet on Biden winning both. There’s a long way to go before then, so you might want to wait to place your bets, but if I had to wager today, I’d bet Biden in both of those primary races.