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Odds on the Identity of CIA Russian Spy Being Discovered Set at +1000

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Politics News

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 4:04 PM PDT

Politics Betting
Will a former Russian CIA spy have his identity revealed? Photo by Vladimir Putin [wikimedia commons].
  • CNN and the New York Times are reporting that a CIA Russian spy is now living in Washington
  • Even though he appears to be a very sensitive asset, the reporters were easily able to find him
  • The Russians have denied that anyone fitting the description had any top-level access

Recent news has come to light that a CIA spy was able to infiltrate The Kremlin in Moscow, and work himself into a pretty good position to be a source of intelligence information for the United States. CNN reported that he’s now living comfortably in the Washington area. Will we find out the name of this agent?

Odds That Identity of a CIA Russian Spy Discovered

Outcome Odds
Yes +1000
No -2500

Odds taken 09/19/19.

Possible Russian Spy for CIA Living in Washington

CNN dropped a bombshell this past week and they released a story involving a former CIA agent, who was able to get his way into The Kremlin. He is a former senior Russian official, who is now living in the Washington area under the United States’ government protection.

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What’s interesting is that while NBC News (and others) is withholding the name of the agent, as per the request of the United States officials, it seems as if he was living his life in plain sight. NBC News was able to visit his home before two men in an SUV came racing up the street and started questioning the reporter.

The United States apparently pulled him from Russia recently fearing that he would be outed. However, many people figured that if the story was true and they did get him out, they’d do a better job of hiding him.

Was This Man an Agent?

The Russians have actually responded to this story as Dmitry Peskov, who is a Kremlin spokesman, said that a person of this description did work for the Russian government but was never a senior official. Also, he was dismissed years ago, so they apparently have no interest in him.

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However, that’s likely to cover their own tracks as they don’t want to look like they’ve been exposed. The last thing they want is to appear as if they’ve been infiltrated. However, the New York Times is reporting that this man helped expose Russia’s orchestrated campaign to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.

Will His Name Be Revealed?

What’s interesting is that according to the American version of events, this person was such a sensitive asset that then-CIA Director John Brennan wouldn’t even refer to this person in the Presidential Daily Brief in the final days of the Obama administration. It’s bizarre that he’d be living in plain daylight where an NBC reporter can find him.

In terms of betting this prop in particular, I would say that it’s very likely that his name will not be revealed. Moreover, he’s likely to be moved very soon as now the Russians are aware of where he is and if a journalist can find him, they’ll be able to as well.

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The other issue is that how will we know that if a name is revealed, that this person is, in fact, a CIA Russian spy. Nobody is going to admit anything on either side, so that makes for quite the conundrum. At this point, I’d bet on ‘No’.

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