Odds on Next Candidate to Not Qualify for October Democratic Debate
- New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is favored to miss the cut for the next debate
- He is polling at 0.2% nationally
- John Delaney is a good bet on this prop as he’s already criticizing his own party and the DNC
The next wave of the Democratic Party’s debates will take place on October 15th and 16th. While a number of candidates have already qualified, there are many more who are still trying to make the cut. Who is the best bet not to qualify for the fourth debate?
Odds To Miss The Cut For October Democratic Debate
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bill de Blasio | +150 |
| Tim Ryan | +300 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +500 |
| Steve Bullock | +700 |
| Michael Bennet | +700 |
| John Delaney | +800 |
| Marianne Williamson | +1000 |
| Tom Steyer | +2000 |
*Odds taken 09/16/2019.
Qualifying Criteria
The qualifying criteria for the fourth debate will be the same as the third, which essentially allows anyone who qualified for the third to automatically make the fourth debate. It also gives candidates who missed the third debate more time to meet the threshold.
The bar that the candidates need to get over is to have at least two percent support in four different polls. The second criteria is that candidates will have to receive at least 130,000 individual donations with at least 400 donors per state in 20 different states.
In terms of which polls qualify, it is the AP, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, The Des Moines Register, Fox News, Monmouth, NBC News, The New York Times, NPR, Quinnipiac, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.
Bill de Blasio Favored To Miss The Cut
There’s a huge array of candidates at risk of missing the next debate, and de Blasio, the Mayor of New York, is a popular option. He’s really struggled to gain traction nationally and, whenever he’s had a moment in the spotlight, it generally hasn’t been a good one.
A big issue for de Blasio is that he’s hardly popular in New York City – his own jurisdiction – so it’s tough for him to convince a greater audience that he’ll do a better job. He’s nowhere near two percent in any poll – let alone four – and he’s supposedly about 7,000 short on donors, too.
Williamson, Gabbard Are Close, Steyer Has Qualified
Both Marianne Williamson and Tulsi Gabbard are close to qualifying. Both have met the necessary number of donors; now they’re just trying to get the numbers in the polls.
Gabbard has qualified in two of four polls while Williamson has in one.
As for Steyer, he’s the worst bet on the board. He’s already qualified, so don’t bother betting him here. He’s in.
Delaney Is Worth A Bet
There’s no question that de Blasio is dead-last in this race as he’s only amassed 700 donors to this point and is nowhere near the necessary two percent in any poll. However, I’m willing to take a shot with John Delaney as de Blasio has an ego and he won’t want to let go this early.
Mayor de Blasio is at 0.2 percent nationally while Delaney is at 0.5 percent, but I see Delaney bowing out soon. He’s already turned on the DNC, comparing them to Thanos – the villain in the latest Avengers movie.
He has no name notoriety and he’s getting no national love. He has no path forward, so I’ll bet he bows out.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
