Sanders Distances Buttigieg, Biden in Nomination Odds; Bloomberg Also Improves After New Hampshire
- Bernie Sanders’s victory in New Hampshire led to his Democratic nomination odds improving from +152 to +124
- Michael Bloomberg’s odds also improved significantly (from +358 to +224). Could he pose a threat to Sanders?
- One-time favorite Joe Biden’s odds nearly doubled from +539 to +1047. Is Biden fading from the race?
As expected, Bernie Sanders won Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. Sanders also won big on the odds board.
Meanwhile, one-time frontrunner Joe Biden continues to fade from view.
Across the leading sportsbooks, Sanders improved from +152 to +124 on average in the Democratic nominee odds.
Biden finished a distant fifth in New Hampshire. He saw his average odds balloon from +539 to +1047. As recently as Jan. 24th, Biden averaged out as the +192 favorite.
Books list Sanders as their +125 chalk to win the nomination.
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | +125 |
| Michael Bloomberg | +275 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +700 |
| Joe Biden | +1000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +1400 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +2000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3300 |
| Michelle Obama | +6600 |
| Tom Steyer | +6600 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +8000 |
Odds taken Feb. 12
Biden has dropped to fourth in this betting market at odds of +1000.
Sanders Wins A Close One
Sanders won in New Hampshire, just as he did in the 2016 primary. But that victory was a 20-point decision over Hillary Clinton. This verdict was much closer.
Sanders garnered 25.8% of the vote. Pete Buttigieg was right behind him at 24.5%. Each candidate gained nine delegates.
Overall, Buttigieg holds a 23-21 edge on Sanders in total delegates following the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
Some pundits are declaring Sanders as the Democratic frontrunner. The odds agree with that assessment but the delegate count doesn’t.
Will Biden Bow Out?
Biden was fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, garnering just 8.4% of ballots. His campaign in leaking oil and running on fumes.
The Democratic field shrunk on Tuesday when Andrew Yang suspended his campaign. As Biden’s chances plummet on the odds board, might he be soon to follow Yang out the door?
Not yet. Biden expects to do much better in the next two primary races in South Carolina and Nevada. He’ll hang in their at least through Super Tuesday on March 3rd, when voters in 16 states go to the polls.
That being said, Biden needs to breath life into his campaign, and soon.
Bloomberg Looming Large
His name won’t even be on the ballot until Super Tuesday. Still, no Democratic candidate is climbing in the odds as rapidly as billionaire Michael Bloomberg.
The former mayor of New York surged past Biden and Buttigieg to become the leading contender among those considered to be moderates.
On MSNBC, Jim Messina concludes that because a lot of NH voters backed moderate candidates, "the big winner last night could be Mayor Bloomberg." pic.twitter.com/FYjwLphbuf
— Max Tani (@maxwelltani) February 12, 2020
Bloomberg’s average odds blossomed from +358 to +254. Meanwhile, Buttigieg, despite strong showings in each of the first two primaries, saw his odds fade from +529 to +615.
Another moderate making a bold move in New Hampshire was Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. She finished a strong third. Klobucher gained 19.8% of the votes.
Her odds improved measurably. Klobuchar jumped from +4640 to +1533.
It’s Way Too Early To Call
In the 1992 Democratic primaries, Tom Harkin won the Iowa caucus with 76.55%. Eventual Presidential election winner Bill Clinton barely gained 2% of the ballots.
Paul Tsongas won in New Hampshire. Clinton’s campaign didn’t gain momentum until well into March.
The point being, this race is way to early to call. Sanders and Buttigieg dominated in mostly-white Iowa and New Hampshire. Will that continue in more diverse states?
Number of Congressional
Black Caucus Members
Who Have Endorsed:Joe Biden: 17
Mike Bloomberg: 4
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Bernie Sanders: 1
Elizabeth Warren: 1
Amy Klobuchar: 0— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) February 12, 2020
Will Biden, who polls well with African Americans, begin to rebound? How will Bloomberg’s entry impact the race? Is Klobuchar now a factor?
If you want to bet on a candidate today, then go ahead. But know at this point, the smart money move would be keeping your money in your pocket.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
