Sanders’ and Buttigieg’s Democratic Nomination Odds Sinking Ahead of Tuesday’s Debate
- Bernie Sanders’ odds to be the 2020 Democratic nominee have plummeted from +310 to +710 in the last three months
- Among candidates in Tuesday’s debate, Elizabeth Warren is rising the fastest, going from +680 to +370
- Pete Buttigieg is falling along with Sanders (+580 to +700)
The first round of Democratic Presidential debates shook up the odds of who might eventually win this crowded race. The second set of debates, slated for tonight and tomorrow (July 30-31) in Detroit, could help thin out this crowded herd of 20-plus candidates.
Like the early stages of a horse race, there’s been plenty of jockeying for position in the 2020 Democratic nomination odds since the first debates concluded. Who’s on the move? Who’s fading?
Let’s look at how the leading contenders in Tuesday’s first debate are faring.
2020 Democratic Presidential Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | +225 |
| Joe Biden | +325 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +375 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +600 |
| Bernie Sanders | +900 |
| Andrew Yang | +2000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3300 |
| Beto O’Rourke | +4000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +4000 |
| Cory Booker | +4000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +4000 |
*Odds taken on 07/30/19
Sanders is the only one among Tuesday’s debaters who’s previously made a serious run at the Presidency, losing out to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Sanders Sinking Fast
Once the darling of the progressive element of the Democratic party, Sanders is beginning to resemble a stock of celery beyond its best before date. His odds are fading, support is wilting and the freshness of his outlook appears to have come and gone.
In early April, Sanders held a solid lead among the Democratic Presidential contenders at +380.
By the eve of the first debates, Sanders’ chances jumped to +550. They went to +580 after the debates and currently sit at +710.
Sanders is barely clinging to the bottom of the legitimate contenders list. He needs to hit it out of the park in Detroit.
Warren A Steady Presence
Elizabeth Warren looks to have stolen the that homey, down-to-earth appeal that drove the Sanders campaign four years ago. She’s utilized town hall meetings and one-on-one connections with voters to build a base of support that is steadily growing.
She’s gone from +2000 in late April to her current solid standing of +370.
Can Pete Repeat?
Pete Buttigieg is another whose candidacy appears to be heading in the wrong direction. He’d gone as low as +330 in late April.
Since then, Buttigieg’s odds have steadily increased. He was +480 in mid-May and +580 by early June. Entering the first round of debates, Buttigieg was +600. That lowered briely to +580 in the aftermath but has since risen to +700, his worst number since early April.
Beto Just Isn’t Presidential
If you want to talk a political free-fall into oblivion, allow us to introduce Beto O’Rourke.
He drew comparisons to Barack Obama after his strong showing in last year’s Texas Senatorial election. Today, he resembles Democratic flash in the pans like Gary Hart and John Edwards.
Ran into @BetoORourke this morning while jogging on the Detroit river ahead of tonight's #CNNDebate How he's preparing: pic.twitter.com/IUN5E96GK0
— Noah Gray (@NoahGrayCNN) July 30, 2019
Those guys did themselves in via personal scandals. Beto is going bye-bye because he’s blah.
How bad is it? At +4000 he trails Clinton (+3300), who’s not even running.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
