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Which European Leader Will Leave Office Next? Odds Favor Merkel

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Politics News

Updated Apr 21, 2020 · 6:10 PM PDT

Angela Merkel after an event
Angela Merkel is favored to be the next European leader to leave office. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Flickr).
  • Europe has now become the epicenter of the coronavirus and the European leaders are being tested
  • Italy had 27,980 confirmed cases as of Tuesday, March 17 with 2,158 deaths. Their 7.71% death percentage is the highest of any country
  • Which European leader is a good bet to leave office next?

As the COVID-19 pandemic grips the entire globe, leaders around the world have been put on the hot seat: lead throughout this crisis and they’re going to gain plenty of support. Fail and they’ll get voted out. Europe has become the epicenter for the coronavirus, so let’s take a look at which European leader is in jeopardy of being ousted next.

Next European Leader to Leave Office Odds

Leader Odds
Angela Merkel (Chancellor Of Germany) +120
Giuseppe Conte (Prime Minister of Italy) +125
Pedro Sanchez (Prime Minister of Spain) +1200
Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) +1400
Emmanuel Macros (President of France) +1800

All odds taken Mar. 17

Merkel Favored to Be Next

Angela Merkel is the Chancellor of Germany and she is favored to be next to leave office. This makes sense on a couple of different fronts. To start, of the five on the board, the next German federal election is next up as it is expected to be held between August and October of 2021.

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In terms of Germany’s response to the coronavirus, so far they’ve been doing alright. At last check, they’ve had 8,084 confirmed cases with 67 deaths. While the losses are sad, their death percentage is just 0.25%. That’s much lower than China (3.99%), Italy (7.71%) or Spain (4.5%). As long as this doesn’t get out of hand, she should be fine.

Johnson Is a Longshot

The United Kingdom has been somewhat criticized for their reaction to the coronavirus but we’ll have to see how things play out for them. They were slow to call for quarantine and social distancing measures. Their plan was to live life as normal unless someone was showing symptoms. However, that quickly changed.

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After watching Italy’s situation get out of hand, the UK relied on data from the Imperial College, which forced a complete change in strategy. Now they’ve gone into lockdown mode. Regardless, Boris Johnson was just put into power in a landslide victory in 2019 and he really has nothing to worry about at this point.

Conte, Sanchez are the Best Bets

If you’re feeling a little dangerous, you might take a flier with Spain’s Pedro Sanchez, who is the Prime Minister. Their COVID-19 numbers are quite scary as they’ve gone zero to 11,309 in less than two weeks. The country has now essentially implemented a Martial Law to force people to stay home and away from social events.

The numbers continue to rocket up as they reported 9,161 cases on Monday but added over 2,000 in just a day. 509 people have already died and those figures will continue to rise. The economy, which wasn’t in the greatest shape to begin with, will take a big hit too. He could end up being blamed.

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If you’re looking for a safer bet, though, Giuseppe Conte in Italy is likely to be your guy. The coronavirus has gotten completely out of hand in Italy and their death rate is scary-high. At 7.71%, that’s the worst in the world right now and not many countries are even close. Even Iran is over 1.5 percent lower (6.11%).

Italy is already at 2,158 deaths, which is second only to China’s 3,230. What’s worse is that while China’s numbers are receding, the virus doesn’t appear to be slowing down in Italy. Their healthcare system is being overrun and their elderly population is suffering. 23% of the population is over the age of 65; they have the second-oldest population on Earth.

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With that in mind, I’d expect Conte to be the best bet here as this is a really bad situation for the Italians. He’s the most likely of the five options on the board to be blamed.

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