Upcoming Match-ups

2019 F1 Drivers Championship Odds Without Mercedes: Charles Leclerc Favored

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Racing

Updated Apr 21, 2020 · 6:13 PM PDT

Charles Leclerc is a -200 favorite to lead F1 standings without Mercedes. But can the 21-year-old Ferrari driver hold off Red Bull's Max Verstappen? Daniel Coyle analyzes the recent results and current odds to find the best bet.
  • Charles Leclerc has posted wins in two of four races to move into third place in the F1 Drivers Standings
  • Max Verstappen has posted a pair of wins this season, and podium finishes in 11 of his past 21 races
  • Sebastian Vettel has won four F1 titles, but feuding with Leclerc may hinder his climb up the standings

It has been a spectacular season for Mercedes in Formula One. Defending champion Lewis Hamilton has teamed up with Valtteri Bottas to earn the German automaker wins in 11 of the first 16 races. The duo’s dominant driving has earned them a strong lead atop the Formula One Drivers Standings. After posting his ninth victory of the season at last weekend’s Russian Grand Prix, Hamilton now looks to be well on his way to claiming a sixth career F1 title, outpacing second-place Bottas by 73 points, and sitting 107 points ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.

It is now looking increasingly unlikely that any driver will threaten the Mercedes duo’s stranglehold at the top of the F1 Drivers Standings. But thanks to sportsbooks, racing fans can still get in on F1 futures betting action, with Leclerc emerging as the favorite to lead the way with Mercedes excluded.

Formula One Drivers Championship Odds without Mercedes

Team Odds
Charles Leclerc -200
Max Verstappen +250
Sebastian Vettel +500

*Odds taken on 10/02/19.

Leclerc on Rebound Following Shaky Start

Leclerc has made major gains since enduring a shaky start to the 2019 season. Hobbled by an array of technical issues with Ferrari’s highly touted new car, the SF90, as well as a stretch of simple bad luck, the 21-year-old reached the podium just once in his first six appearances this season, a third-place finish at Bahrain.

Leclerc has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround since failing to finish in his home race at Monaco, reaching the podium in seven of nine outings, including his first career wins in consecutive outings at Belgium and Italy. The Monte Carlo native’s midseason surge has vaulted him into third place, three points up on Max Verstappen.

While it would take extraordinary circumstances for Leclerc to erase 107-point lead in the standings, he has made steady gains in the F1 Drivers Championship odds, going from a lengthy +20000 to +6600 prior to last weekend’s race at Sochi.

Leclerc is a short +165 favorite to claim his third win of the season at the Japanese Grand Prix on October 13.

Verstappen Producing Consistent Results

However, it would be premature to write off Verstappen’s chances as an attractive +250 second-favorite to lead all the F1 standings without Mercedes. Verstappen has been among the most consistent drivers on the circuit this season, finishing in the top five in 14 of 16 races, while also recording wins at Austria and Germany.

Driving for Red Bull Racing, Verstappen has reached the podium on six occasions this season, and in 11 of 21 races since last year’s Japanese Grand Prix. While the 22-year-old has struggled to maintain those results in recent outings, a great deal of that can be blamed on Red Bull’s decision to do an engine upgrade prior to last month’s Belgian Grand Prix, which forced Verstappen to start from the back of the grid.

Verstappen has reached the podium on six occasions this season, and in 11 of 21 races since last year’s Japanese Grand Prix.

However, with that adjustment made, Verstappen enters a stretch of races in which he enjoyed considerable success a year ago. In addition to reaching the podium for a third straight year with a third-place at Japan in 2018, Verstappen claimed victory at Mexico to go along with second-place performances at both the United States and Brazilian Grand Prix.

In addition, Verstappen has demonstrated his steeliness by claiming the fastest lap on three occasions, second only to Hamilton.

Feud with Leclerc Hurting Vettel’s Chances

Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate, Sebastian Vettel, must also be considered a strong contender to lead all drivers not affiliated with Mercedes. The four-time Formula One champion ended a year-long drought by taking the checkered flag at Singapore. He currently sits fifth in the Drivers Standings, 21 points back of Leclerc.

However, Vettel is coming off a controversial run at Sochi, where he ignored team orders to give way to Leclerc before crashing out of the race. That has fueled tension between the former champion and his rising-star teammate, which may be just enough to give Verstappen the edge in the battle to top the F1 standings without Mercedes.

Pick: Max Verstappen to Finish Top of F1 Drivers Standings without Mercedes (+250)

Author Image