NASCAR Bluegreen Vacations 500 Race Odds & Picks

• The Bluegreen Vacations 500 is set for Sunday, November 10th, at 2:30 pm EST
• The race will take place at Phoenix Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona
• Kyle Busch is the defending champ here and will need a good showing to qualify for the final four

It’s the final race for drivers to make the final four as after Sunday’s Bluegreen Vacations 500, only four drivers will remain in the running for the championship. This week’s race will take place at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday, November 10th at 2:30 pm EST.

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have already qualified for the championship race but who’ll join them?

Odds to Win Bluegreen Vacations 500

Odds taken Nov. 6

Can Busch Get Back on Track?

Busch is the obvious favorite heading into this race for a number of important reasons. First of all, he’s the defending champion at this event and he’s won each of his last two starts at this track. Second, Busch has placed in the Top 5 in seven of his last eight Phoenix starts.

Busch has led over a hundred laps in four of his last five starts here and more importantly, he knows he needs a victory to guarantee he advances to the championship round. He’s currently holding one of the two final spots but if he struggles here, he could go home. Look for him to be focused here.

Elliott Must Show Well This Week

Elliott has placed second and third in recent trips to this track. He will likely need to best those results with an outright victory in order to have any shot at all at keeping his season alive. Elliott hasn’t exactly looked good over the last two weeks but he knows how to race in Phoenix.

In terms of active drivers at this track, Elliott has the fifth-best average driver finish since 2017. Although he placed 14th and 23rd in his last two outings, he was ninth or better in four of his five before that. With his back against the wall, it feels like the right time for Top 10 prop bet for him.

Larson for a Top 10

Larson is another driver that has registered multiple Top 3 finishes over his last six starts on this track. He’s also another driver that needs an outright win in order to keep his season alive. Although both him and Elliott are longshots, it’s do or die time if they want to make something happen.

Larson does fairly well on intermediate tracks as he has an average finish of 10.1 since 2017 in these races. That’s the fourth-best among active drivers. With four Top 6 finishes in his last six starts here, I wouldn’t be surprised if he produces a Top 10 result here.

Past Five Winners at Bluegreen Vacations 500

Pass on Harvick

Harvick has won seven of his last 14 starts at this track so it really isn’t all that surprising that only Busch has better odds to win this weekend’s race. However, it’s important to keep in mind that while Busch still hasn’t clinched his spot in the championship round, Harvick has already punched his ticket.

After picking up a win last week and with an eye toward next week, I’m expecting Harvick to take his foot off the gas here a little bit. He hasn’t won back-to-back races all season, so I won’t bank on it happening here.