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Busch and Truex Jr Listed as Co-Favorites to Win NASCAR Cup Championship Ahead of Homestead Race

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 8:25 AM PST

Kyle Busch and others racing.
The NASCAR championship is down to four drivers, who are all between +250 and +275 to win it. Photo by ZappaOMati (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin are the four drivers competing for a championship on Sunday.
  • Hamlin hasn’t finished better than ninth in any of his last four outings at Homestead.
  • Harvick has placed ninth or better in 10 of his last 11 starts overall.

The 2019 NASCAR season is down to the final race. There are just four drivers left in the running as Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin will duke it out at the Ford EcoBoost 400 in Miami on Sunday.

Busch and Truex Jr. are the favorites to win it all, but the other two are close behind. Who is the best bet?

Odds to Win Ford EcoBoost 400

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch +250
Martin Truex Jr. +250
Kevin Harvick +275
Denny Hamlin +275

Odds taken Nov. 13

Odds Put Drivers In a Dead Heat

Last week’s Monster Energy Cup Championship odds showed a clear edge for Harvick and Truex Jr., while the other two lagged behind. Harvick was the +200 favorite while Truex Jr. was at +220.

They’ve since fallen back to +270 and +250, respectively, and that’s because of what happened in last week’s race.

Hamlin won in Phoenix while Busch finished second. That’s allowed both to move up in the odds for this week as Hamlin has shot up from +1000 to +270 while Busch has gone from +330 to +270. All of these numbers are averages across the major sportsbooks.

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That means we’re looking at a four-way tie as the oddsmakers view these four as having about an equal chance to win this week.

Pass on Hamlin

Taking a look recent track records, Hamlin seems to have the weakest of the bunch. They’re not bad but Hamlin hasn’t finished better than ninth in any of his last four outings at Homestead. His worst finish in that span is 12th, so it’s not as if he’s doing too poorly. The issue is he’s not as strong when contrasted with others.

Truex Jr. has a win and a runner-up in his last two outings, and while he was 12th or worse in his previous three starts, he’s still sixth or better here in five of his last eight starts. As for Busch, he wasn’t very good here early on in his career but he’s turned things around significantly.

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Busch has finished no worse than sixth in his last four starts at Homestead and has six top seven’s in his last eight starts here. Of the bunch, Hamlin has the worst numbers, so we’ll cross him off the list.

Harvick Has Best History at Homestead

One of the reasons you might want to bet Harvick this week is he has an excellent track record at Homestead. He has the best average finish (6.56) of any driver that’s every raced there more than once. The numbers are staggering at just how good he’s been here, which is why he has to be the best bet.

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In 18 starts in Miami, Harvick has placed in the top ten 16 times with ten Top 5’s. Taking a look at a more recent history, he hasn’t finished worse than fourth in any of his last five outings. He’s finished in the Top 8 in 10 of his last 11 starts here with the one outlier being a 10th-place result. With numbers like that, you’d have to roll with him.

What’s the Best Bet?

There are four good drivers going on Sunday and they’re all pretty evenly matched. Just when it looked like Busch was fading down the stretch, he’s now placed seventh or better in three of his last four starts. Meanwhile, Truex Jr. has three sixth-place finishes and a win in his last four.

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My bet is Harvick, though, as he’s arguably been the best driver over the last couple of months. He’s been ninth or better in 10 of his last 11 starts overall and given how he thrives at Miami, I’m expecting him to take home the championship.

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