Giro d’Italia Odds, Preview, and Pick – Best Bets for Pink Jersey and More
- The Giro d’Italia begins Saturday, May 8, in Turin
- Egan Bernal, the 2019 Tour de France champion, is the race favorite
- Who is the best wagering value in the 2021 Giro d’Italia?
Last year, pre-race longshot Tao Geoghegan Hart won the Giro d’Italia, which was moved from May to October because of COVID-19. Hart is skipping this year’s grueling 21-stage event as he prepares for his first Tour de France, meaning the drought of repeat winners dating back to Miguel Indurain (1992 and 1993) will stretch to 28 years.
The Giro begins with an individual time trial in Turin this Saturday (May 8) and concludes with an ITT in Milan on May 30. In-between, there are more than 3,400 kilometers, six summit finishes, and a half-dozen stages earmarked for the sprinters.
Egan Bernal, who won the Tour de France in 2019, is the tepid favorite this year in Italy.
Bernal, Simon Yates, and Remco Evenepoel comprise the top tier of General Classification riders. Let’s examine the odds and consider where we can find the best betting value.
Giro d’Italia Winner Odds
| Rider (Team) | Odds to Win | Odds to Finish Top 3 | Odds to Finish Top 10 at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) | +275 | -134 | -305 |
| Simon Yates (Team BikeExchange) | +300 | -125 | -225 |
| Remco Evenepoel (Deceuninck – Quick-Step) | +375 | +160 | -167 |
| Emanuel Buchmann (Bora-Hansgrohe) | +1200 | +225 | -225 |
| Hugh Carthy (EF Education-Nippo) | +1400 | +300 | -250 |
| Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) | +1400 | +300 | -385 |
| Aleksandr Vlasov (Astana-Premier Tech) | +1400 | +250 | -305 |
| Joao Almeida (Deceuninck – Quick-Step) | +1600 | +375 | -200 |
| Pavel Sivakov (Ineos Grenadiers) | +1800 | +450 | -139 |
| Jai Hindley (Team DSM) | +2200 | +500 | -167 |
| Daniel Felipe Martinez (Ineos Grenadiers) | +3300 | +750 | +500 |
| George Bennett (Jumbo-Visma) | +4000 | +900 | -134 |
| Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) | +4000 | +800 | -139 |
| Vincenzo Nibali (Trek-Segafredo) | +4000 | +1000 | +175 |
| Romain Bardet (Team DSM) | +5000 | +1200 | +110 |
| Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) | +5000 | +1200 | +250 |
| Marc Soler (Movistar Team) | +5000 | +1200 | +100 |
| Daniel Martin (Israel Start-Up Nation) | +6600 | +1600 | -155 |
Odds as of May 4th, 2021.
While Italian’s have won the Pink Jersey 41 times since the race debuted in 1909, the home country has been shut out in four straight years. When Hart triumphed last year, he became the second Brit to be crowned the champion. Chris Froome won in 2018. Yates is a major threat for the UK to top the podium again.
Last year’s route was re-structured because of COVID-19 and was constrained to Italy. This year, the course reaches over borders to Slovenia and Switzerland. Riders believe this year’s path is particularly demanding. Few days avoid major climbs or hurdles. Two stages with gravel are particularly stressful.
Bernal, Yates, and Evenepoel All Make Sense
When Bernal won the Tour de France two years ago he was 22 years old and appeared to have an incredibly bright future.
He was having a solid 2020 and entered the Tour de France as the favorite but couldn’t keep up on the most grueling stages and abandoned the race in the final week. Bernal has started 2021 in solid-not-spectacular fashion. There is no question he can win. Because Ineos is probably the strongest team, anything outside of the podium would be a big disappointment.
Yates won the Vuelta a España in 2018 after it seemed like he was going to take the Giro. He followed up the Giro disappointment by returning to the event in 2019 and finishing eighth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG1sqwakIJA&t=6s
Last year, Yates had some early success, but was not at his best in the Giro and eventually had to withdraw after a positive COVID-19 test. He has started 2021 by winning the Tour of the Alps and finishing among the top ten in two other significant stage races. His recent form is an indication this may be his year.
Evenepoel is a 21-year-old redhead who switched his athletic pursuits from soccer to cycling in 2017. Two years ago he won the Tour of Belgium, and last year took four major stage races.
In August Evenepoel crashed at the Il Lombardia and fractured his pelvis. This year’s Giro is his Grand Tour debut. He is immensely talented and a future star. What he looks like in his first serious race since surgery is hard to predict.
The Giro is a Good Event to Shoot for a Longshot
Hart last year, and Richard Carapaz in 2019 were not exactly hot names before the race began to arrive in Milan as the champ. It is worthwhile to consider a price, even if you don’t pick them to win.
Jai Hindley was the runner up to Hart a year ago and while he may not win it this year, his chances to stay among the top five are decent and the price is reasonable.
Hindley is teamed with Romain Bardet and Nicolas Roche on DSM. They are a little under the radar. Bardet is capable, but if all of their support goes to Hindley, the 24-year-old climbing specialist from Australia has a good chance to perform well.
Veteran George Bennett has been a good soldier for a long time. Whether it be as a domestique, or in whatever role he is asked to full, he rarely has been Jumbo-Visma’s go to rider.
Bennett leads kind of a B-Jumbo roster here with the top riders supporting Primož Roglič in the upcoming Tour de France. While Bennett won’t have a ton of support in the mountains, a top-ten finish feels pretty likely, and top-five is on the table.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
