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Kevin Harvick Favored to Win NASCAR Monster Energy Cup with Two Races Remaining

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 8:26 AM PST

Kevin Harvick making the final turn.
After picking up the win at the AAA Texas 500, Kevin Harvick is now favored to win the NASCAR Championship. Photo by Zach Catanzareti (Flickr).
  • Kevin Harvick has now finished in the Top 9 in 13 of his last 15 outings
  • Martin Truex Jr. has three wins and six Top 7’s in his last seven starts
  • Kyle Busch has placed in the Top 10 just four times in his last nine race

Kevin Harvick picked up a huge win at the AAA Texas 500 in a very dominant effort. After notching his 49th career win, he’s now been made the favorite to win the championship, according to the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup odds. Is he a good bet to win his second title or is there value elsewhere?

Monster Energy Cup Championship Odds

Driver Odds
Kevin Harvick +200
  Martin Truex Jr. +220
Kyle Busch +325
Joey Logano +600
Denny Hamlin +1000
Kyle Larson +2800
Chase Elliott +3300
Ryan Blaney +3300

All odds taken Nov. 6.

Harvick Wins, Clinches Spot Among Final Four

The AAA Texas 500 was an important race as now this week’s showdown will bring the drivers in the field down to the final four for next week’s championship race. Harvick clinched one of the four spots with a win in what was truly a dominant effort. Harvick had the pole position, led 119 laps and ended up with the win.

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That’s not overly surprising as Harvick has done well at Texas, now collecting wins in three of his last six starts. Overall, the win was his fourth on the season and he now has finished in the Top 9 in 13 of his last 15 outings. He’s about as hot as it gets right now.

Truex Jr. Still Close as He’s Clinched a Spot in Miami

If you look at the odds, both Harvick and Truex Jr. are neck-in-neck for the favorite’s role while everyone else is further back. That’s because they have both clinched a spot in the championship race while the other two spots are still up for grabs. Truex Jr. had already clinched his spot before Texas but still finished strong with a sixth-place result.

Harvick has been the steadier of the two over a longer period of time but it’s hard to beat the numbers that Truex Jr. has put up over the last couple of months. Over his last seven starts, he has three wins and has finished worse than seventh just once.

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The difference between these two drivers is who do you like in Miami? Truex Jr. has placed second and first there in his last two starts, but finished no better than 12th in his previous three. As for Harvick, he’s finished in the Top 10 in 11 straight races at Homestead with five straight in the Top 4. That seems to give him an edge.

Time to Pass on Busch?

It’s hard to believe that the regular season champ might not even make it to the championship race. As of right now, he’s in one of the two final spots but his space is not secured. He’s been a fading commodity for a little while now as he hasn’t won since June 2nd.

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Busch has placed in the Top 10 just four times in his last nine races. We know what he’s capable of, so I’m not counting him out, but I’m not going to be betting on him to win it all either. He just hasn’t looked that crisp in a long time. At the same time, he does great in Phoenix and he’s strong in Miami, so maybe now is the time to invest?

What’s the Best Bet?

Taking a look at the odds, it really feels like you can’t make any bad decisions. Busch offers value but he’s struggled of late. At the same time, he’s won twice in a row at Phoenix and placed in the Top 7 eight straight times. He should be in the final four. And if he is, he’s placed in the Top 6 four straight times in Miami.

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Truex Jr. has been on fire of late and he’s done well at Miami of late, but his track record beyond his last two starts there is great. Harvick has the best track record of the bunch at Homestead and he’s relatively hot right now, so he’s not a bad choice.

It’s a bit of a personal preference here but I’ll go with Truex Jr. He’s collected the most wins this season and has arguably been the best driver over the last two months. He should finish this off.

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