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Opening 2020 NASCAR Championship Odds: Busch Favored, Truex Jr & Harvick Close Behind

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 8:26 AM PST

NASCAR drivers in the pits.
Which driver is the best bet to win the 2020 NASCAR Championship? Photo by Justin Leedy (Wikimedia).
  • Toyota dominated last season as only one Ford driver made the final four.
  • Joe Gibbs Racing won 19 of the 36 races in the 2019 season.
  • Kyle Busch, who won the 2019 NASCAR Championship, has opened as the favorite to win the 2020 Championship at +400.

Kyle Busch claimed the 2019 NASCAR Championship in a bit of an up-and-down season. He started with an incredible run of wins and top ten finishes, then faded a little bit, before turning it up again to win the Monster Energy Cup.

Looking forward to 2020 NASCAR Championship odds, who is the best bet to win the next title?

2020 NASCAR Championship Odds

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch +400
Martin Truex Jr. +450
Kevin Harvick +450
Denny Hamlin +500
Joey Logano +800
Brad Keselowski +800
Chase Elliott +1000
Kyle Larson +1000
Ryan Blaney +1400
Erik Jones +1600

Odds taken Dec. 24th

Busch Deserved the 2019 Championship

Busch started the 2019 campaign on an amazing run, the likes of which we hadn’t seen in a while. Including his second-place result at the Daytona 500, Busch started the season with 11 straight top ten finishes.

What’s even more impressive about this initial run was that he had four wins in that span and was in the Top five a total of 12 times. He wasn’t just sneaking into the top ten’s; he was competing for a win each and every week.

Busch kind of faded from there – at least by his standards – and was basically a normal driver up until the playoffs.

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However, he had already built up such a strong position at the top of the standings that he only had to be ordinary the rest of the way to still be favored throughout the season, never falling worse than +400 to win it all. He ended up winning the final race of the year in Miami to claim the title.

Busch’s fade made it interesting as the final four drivers essentially had the same odds to win the championship entering Homestead. It opened the door for Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin. Each of the drivers had their hot spots throughout the year and were in contention for the title.

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What’s interesting to note is that the Truex Jr. and Harvick joined Busch in the sense that none had odds of +700 or longer throughout the season.

Denny Hamlin was the one longshot as he was as high as +2500 early in the year. It wasn’t until August that he caught fire and got himself in contention.

Will the Ford Drivers Bounce Back?

Looking ahead to the 2020 season, it seems clear that Ford is behind Toyota on the NASCAR series. You might want to think twice about betting the Ford drivers to win the NASCAR Championship – at least right now. It’s hard to say if it was just a down year or if it was a turning of the tide.

Ford had just one driver make it to the Championship: Kevin Harvick. He was the lone non-Toyota. Joey Logano had his moments in 2019 but wasn’t really in the running that frequently. He had two wins on the year and his odds bounced around between +800 and +1400, for the most part.

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Brad Keselowski had his moments in 2019 too – he was as low as +350 for one week – but for the most part, he was between +650 and +800 to win the NASCAR Championship. He notched three wins on the campaign. That left Harvick as really the only Ford driver with a good shot to win it.

Taking a look ahead to this year, there are no changes to Team Penske, so Logano and Keselowski will take the lead again while Ryan Blaney should continue to be a driver on the rise. Logano won in 2018 and Keselowski won in 2012, so these two are capable but I want to see how they start the season before committing.

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Harvick, who is part of Stewar-Haas, is the best of the Ford’s to win the championship – at least right now. He’s one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit and one of the most consistently excellent as he’s finished third in three straight seasons and no worse than third in eight if the last ten.

Who’s the Best Bet Right Now?

Obviously, the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are going to get a lot of love. After all, they’re coming off an incredible year. As a team, they won 19 of the 36 races on the season while Harvick was the only non-JGR driver in the final four. They’re even adding talented rookie Chris Bell to the mix this year.

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As of right now, it’s a razor-thin margin between Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Harvick, but I’d go with Truex Jr. He really impressed me last season and has now finished first or second in the Championship in three straight years. If I’m betting this early, I want to have that type of track record of consistency with my driver.

He finished the year really well with nine top ten finishes in his last 10 races, and I’ll look for him to carry that momentum over into 2020.

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