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Retirement Odds: Vince Carter Favored to Be the Next Star to Walk Away

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in News

Updated May 14, 2020 · 3:00 PM PDT

Vince Carter pounds the ball into the paint.
Vince Carter has become considerably more ground bound during the second half of his career. Photo by Danny Bollinger (flickr).
  • Sportsbooks have released odds for when nine celebrated athletes will retire
  • Will Vince Carter make it through the 2018-19 NBA season?
  • Does Bartolo Colon has enough gas left in the tank to pitch at age 46?

Getting old sucks. Just ask Vince Carter. The eight-time All-Star wakes up every morning with creaky knees and an aching back, and spends more time stretching than actually playing basketball.

On those rare occasions when Carter blows by his man and manages to dunk, his teammates invariably fall over laughing. That’s quite a contrast from the appreciative chorus of oohs and ahhs he used to generate with his gravity-defying slams in his prime.

Oddsmakers has been keeping tabs on Carter’s long and winding career and believes the one-time Slam Dunk champ will be the first among a group of nine celebrated athletes to call it quits.

Professional Athlete Retirement Odds (08/30/18)

Player Age  Odds
Vince Carter 41 +190
Bartolo Colon 45 +300
Phil Dawson 43 +400
Adam Vinatieri 45 +500
Dirk Nowitzki 40 +750
Adrian Beltre 39 +1200
Zdeno Chara 41 +1400
Joe Thornton 39 +1400
Patrick Marleau 38 +1400
Roberto Luongo 39 +2000

Also on the list are Cardinals kicker Phil Dawson, Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, and Rangers hurler Bartolo Colon, all of whom are on the wrong side of 40. Let’s dissect the sportsbooks’ top four picks and see where the value lies.

Vince Carter

Do you remember when Vince Carter used to be known as Half Man, Half Amazing? If you do, you’re probably almost as old as Carter himself. The 41-year-old baller has been in the NBA since 1998 when he was taken fifth overall by Golden State and promptly flipped to Toronto. He’s since played for six other franchises and averaged 5.4 points and 2.6 rebounds in 17.7 minutes per game last season with the Kings.

Carter has heard all the jokes about his age and lack of lift, and insists he’s using it for fuel. “I know playing this game that the media and the fans and people can be cruel,” he recently told ESPN. “It’s like, ‘You’re old and you’re playing against guys half your age. You shouldn’t be out here.’ But then for me that is my goal, to prove that I’m able to do that. And I put in a lot of work in mentally as well as physically just preparing myself.”

Does that sound like a man who’s ready to hang up his Nikes to you? Carter is still an excellent lockeroom presence and his willingness to play for the league minimum for any team suggests his NBA story may still have another chapter or two.

Phil Dawson

Admit it, Phil Dawson looks far more like someone in a fantasy football league than someone in the National Football League. And yet, despite his advancing age and limited stature, this follicly-challenged 43-year-old has been one of the game’s most productive players since booting his first extra point with the Browns in 1999. Dawson has been to the Pro Bowl, he’s been named Second Team All Pro twice, and he ranks tenth all-time among NFL Scoring leaders.

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Dawson will have to step away at some point, but it won’t be anytime soon. He went 32-40 last season and was 80% from 50-yards out. A guy with a leg like that can stay in the game for a very long time.

Average Age of Players in Major League Sports

League Average Age
MLB 28.9
MLS 28.0
NBA 26.5
NFL 26.6
NHL 27.0

Adam Vinatieri

Few kickers can hold a flame to Adam Vinatieri, who has four Super Bowl championships, three Pro Bowls, and 2,487 career points on his crowded resume.

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The 45-year-old has earned the right to leave the game on his own terms after 23 exceptional seasons, but he has no intention of walking off into the sunset just yet. “I love it as much today as I had when I started 23 years ago,” he recently told Colts.com.  “I’m not looking to hang them up anytime soon, unless something happens that needs to be that way.”

Bartolo Colon

At 5’11” and 285 lbs. Bartolo Colon holds the distinction of being the only Major Leaguer who is as tall as he is wide. You’d think all of that excessive weight would work against him, but “Big Sexy” has found a way of channeling it into his pitches to give his four-seamer a little extra oomph. The 45-year-old hurler is 7-11 in 23 starts and became the winningest Latin pitcher in MLB history in August when he picked up his 246th career victory.

That milestone is notable because it was the one reason why Colon returned in 2018. Now that his name is in the record books he’ll be far less motivated to play another year and undergo the rigors of a 162 game season.

Colon is still a big attraction in every sense of the word, but he barely made a Major League roster this year and hasn’t had a sub 5.00 ERA since 2016.

There’s also the issue of Colon’s value. The four-time All-Star is still a big attraction in every sense of the word, but he barely made a Major League roster this year and hasn’t had a sub 5.00 ERA since 2016. Surely teams would be better served by giving his roster spot to a young up-and-comer.

Betting Advice: Bet Big on Big Sexy

It’s been a lot of fun watching Colon take baseballs to the belly this year, but his occasional highlights have concealed the fact that he simply isn’t very good anymore. The former Cy Young winner is sporting a sky-high 5.45 ERA and has given up 158 hits in 140.1 innings pitched. He’s also on the DL with a lower back strain, suggesting that his super-sized physique might finally be breaking down.

Colon may not be done with baseball, but baseball will be done with him by the end of the 2018 season.

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