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Do I Have to Bet on Roger Federer? A 2018 Wimbledon Preview

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in Tennis

Updated Mar 24, 2020 · 8:20 AM PDT

Roger Federer Wimbledon
Roger Federer, on his way to one of his many Wimbledon titles. Photo by Justin Smith (Flickr)
  • Roger Federer is favored to win his ninth Wimbledon title
  • Will Rafael Nadal stun us all for the fifth time in a row?

The 2018 Wimbledon Championships will run from July 2nd to July 15th, and the men’s tournament is one of the most hotly anticipated of the year. Roger Federer is trying to extend his historic dominance of the grass court slam, and he’s got a great chance to do it.

Roger Federer is the Favorite and You Should Not be Surprised

  • +150 doesn’t exactly promise a ton  of value
  • But that’s what you get for the eight-time champion

Roger Federer is the favorite to win Wimbledon, which could be said at almost any point in the last decade. The defending and eight-time champion returns to SW19 after a restful clay court season and a more or less successful start to the grass season.

The defending and eight-time champion returns to SW19 after a restful clay court season and a more or less successful start to the grass season.

Federer won the Stuttgart Open, but more importantly got valuable matches against Mischa Zverev, Nick Kyrgios, and Milos Raonic. In winning that tournament, Federer became the #1 player in the world, an achievement made more impressive because he skipped the clay court season entirely.

From the Stuttgart final, a pretty neat return from Federer:

His odds don’t present a ton of value, but at least he isn’t an odds-on favorite, as Rafael Nadal was before the start of the French Open. The field at Wimbledon has been really hollowed out by injury (Andy Murray, maybe Novak Djokovic) and clay-court specialty (Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem), leaving only Alexander Zverev and Marin Cilic able to truly challenge Federer at the top.

Given Federer’s record against the latter and the former’s struggles in Grand Slams, you end up coming back to Federer. It’s not a great state of affairs for bettors, so betting the tournament outright probably isn’t a great idea.

Don’t be shocked when Rafael Nadal loses a shocker

  • Since 2012, fading Rafael Nadal early has made bettors a lot of money
  • He’ll be a strong favorite in almost all his matches, and has crashed out of the tournament in the early rounds in his last five attempts

Nadal is supposed to be the big challenger to Federer, and as world #1 or #2 when the tournament rolls around he’ll be on the opposite side of the draw so the two can meet in the final.

Nadal is supposed to be the big challenger to Federer, and as world #1 or #2 when the tournament rolls around he’ll be on the opposite side of the draw so the two can meet in the final.

In his last five trips to Wimbledon, Nadal has lost to Gilles Muller, qualifier Dustin Brown, a teenaged Nick Kyrgios, Steve Darcis, and Lukas Rosol. Nadal was, of course, heavily favored in those matches, and each time it was considered shocking that he’d crash out so early.

Here’s Rafael Nadal’s last five Wimbledons, presented as shocked reaction to his upset losses.

2017:

Nadal withdrew from Wimbledon in 2016, which was itself a shock, so here’s 2015:

2014:

2013:

2012:

The media might never stop being shocked that Rafael Nadal lost in embarrassing fashion at Wimbledon, but hopefully after five years we can be a little sharper than that. Betting against Rafa moneyline in all his matches might be a good strategy in its own right. Selecting for weird players that Rafa has struggled against might also be worthwhile.

If you’re looking for an alternative to Federer on the outright market, and I’m not convinced you should be, please don’t look to Rafael Nadal.

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