Saratoga Odds & Picks – Saratoga Derby Invitational, Troy Stakes, Glen Falls Stakes & More
- It is a huge weekend at Saratoga surrounding Saturday’s Whitney Stakes
- Eight graded stakes races highlight the action at The Spa
- Where is betting value present Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in upstate New York?
While the $1 million Whitney Stakes gets lots of attention, it is merely one of eight major races this weekend at Saratoga. Saturday’s Saratoga Derby Invitational is also a seven figure Grade 1 event and features a diverse and competitive field.
Eleven horses, five who have primarily run in Europe, are poised to go at it in the Derby Invitational including Bolshoi Ballet. The Irish bred trained by Aidan O’Brien made his American debut a winning one last month at Belmont Park. He faces a strong field of three year olds on a really super day of racing.
After a pair of graded stakes races on Friday, and before a couple of them on Sunday, there are three graded tests on the Whitney undercard.
With great volume of high end racing comes opportunity. Where can we find value this weekend at the Spa? Let’s break-down the Derby Invitational, and consider the other stakes action.
2021 Saratoga Derby Invitational Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bolshoi Ballet | +200 |
| Cadillac | +400 |
| Secret Protector | +600 |
| Du Jour | +800 |
| State of Rest | +1000 |
| King Fury | +1000 |
| Cellist | +1200 |
| Soldier Rising | +1200 |
| Yes This Time | +1500 |
| Flashiest | +2000 |
| Palazzi | +2000 |
Odds as of August 5th
The Saratoga Derby dates back to the early 1900’s. It was run three times, in 1904, 1905, and 1906. At that time the purse was around $10,000. After going on hiatus for a century, A Thread of Blue took the race when it returned in 2019, and Domestic Spending got to the finish first last year.
This mile-and-a-sixteenth challenge on the turf does not permit lasix. A controversial drug that helps horses from bleeding is not allowed in Europe and recently has been limited in the US at the top level of racing. European horses, used to not racing on drugs, have had an advantage since the rule has been tweaked in the U.S.
Fox Sports 2 has television coverage. Post time on Saturday is slated for 5:10 pm EST.
Favorites
A winner of three out of six career races in Ireland and Great Britain, Bolshoi Ballet was the favorite in last month’s Belmont Derby and took care of business.
Top European rider Ryan Moore has the mount on Bolshoi Ballet, who was the favorite in four different races in Europe. He fell short in each of his two Grade 1 efforts across the pond, but had no difficulty capturing a G1 in New York.
Cadillac won two of four races in Europe before finishing in fourth place at last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. His only race this year was a winning one in Ireland in June.
While Cadillac does not have a Grade 1 victory, he has won Grade 2 and 3 events. A strong pace up front could benefit the strong closer.
Secret Protector has been running in top races in England, though not winning them. An $800,000 son of War Front, his two career wins are on a synthetic surface at Kempton, and on grass in Dubai. He was third at the high end Ascot meet in a Grade 3 event last time out.
Contenders
Du Jour didn’t run great finishing fourth behind Bolshoi Ballet last time out. That was after a two month layoff. Before the break he looked terrific on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
Formerly trained by Bob Baffert, this will be the second time Du Jour runs for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. He might appreciate the cutback in distance from a-mile-and-a-quarter last time out.
King Fury won two races last year but wasn’t strong in his final couple tries in 2020. He impressively began this year with a win at Keeneland.
After opening 2021 with a win, he finished a solid second in June’s Ohio Derby. His form this year puts King Fury in the mix but note his recent victories have been on dirt, not turf.
State of Rest is making his stateside debut after winning just once in seven tries in Europe. He has never raced on a firm grass course, and will be carrying significantly less weight than in any of his previous races. He was third in a stakes race in Ireland last time out, but has not hit the board in three graded stakes tries.
Longshots
Soldier Rising makes his US debut for trainer Christophe Clement, who is excellent with horses shipping in from Europe, and outstanding on turf. The British bred son of Frankel has two wins in four starts, all in France. He won at Chantilly in April, and finished second at Longchamp last time out in May.
Cellist led the Belmont Derby before yielding to Bolshoi Ballet. The shorter distance may help, just like it did at Churchill Downs in late May.
He beat Palazzi, who returns to face him again in the Saratoga Derby. Cellist is lightly raced and with a step forward could be in the mix.
Yes This Time has six wins in eight starts including a victory in his graded stakes debut last month.
While Yes This Time is stepping up in class, and won’t be a favorite for the fifth straight race, the former claimer has taken on every challenge.
Pick: Secret Protector (+600)
Other Graded Stakes Races at Saratoga this Weekend
A pair of turf races for boys highlight Friday’s card. Each carry purses of $200,000. The Grade 3 Troy is a sprint race for four year olds and up, while the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes is a mile for three year olds.
In addition to The Whitney and Saratoga Derby, on Saturday the Glens Falls Stakes is a-mile-and-a-half turf test for older girls, while The Test Stakes is a seven furlong event for three year old fillies on the main track.
On Sunday there is the $700,000 Saratoga Oaks, a mile-and-three-sixteenths challenge for three year old fillies on the turf, and the Adirondack Stakes, two year old fillies sprinting on the dirt.
Troy Stakes
This is a hard knocking group of veterans, many of whom have faced each other several times. In June’s Jaipur Stakes +1000 Casa Creed topped +2800 Chewing Gum with even money Bound for Nowhere finishing third. Fast Boat, who was +730, finished sixth.
Each of those rivals face off again here, and so too do several horses from April’s Shakertown Stakes. At Keeneland, it was Bound for Nowhere holding off Imprimis.
Don’t count out Irish bred Lazuli either. Making his stateside debut, the Charlie Appleby trained, Godolphin owned four year old has five wins in 11 starts. This year he won a Grade 3 race in May, and was sixth in a Grade 3 try last month.
Pick: Imprimis
Hall of Fame Stakes
On July 4 at Belmont Park Original held off Public Sector in the Manila Stakes. The top two return to face each other along with several further viable contenders here.
Public Sector was the favorite in that race, but Original pulled the upset. Both horses need to contend with Next in this one. He was in over his head against top horses at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, but rebounded to win a stakes race in Louisville on June 26.
Wolfie’s Dynaghost is trying turf for the first time and stepping up in competition. A two time winner, he is the half brother of Sadler’s Joy, a turf specialist who has won millions in purses.
The race is named for the Hall of Fame, which will induct both the 2020 and 2021 classes on Friday. Trainer Mark Casse has waited two years for this day. He will go into the Hall in the morning, and hope that Easy Time can get him to the winner’s circle in the afternoon. He won in Canada last month, but that was on a synthetic surface. He finished second in his lone turf try.
Pick: Public Sector
Glens Falls Stakes
Three of the eight horses entered here took the first three spots in last month’s Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park.
Dalika, who has seven career victories, held off Luck Money and Temple City Terror. That was the first graded stakes win for any of the trio.
War Like Goddess has four wins in five tries and took back-to-back graded stakes in Florida and Kentucky this spring.
Veteran My Sister Nat won a stakes at Saratoga last summer, but it is her last victory. She ran a solid third against Mean Mary at Belmont Park in June.
Pick: My Sister Nat
Test Stakes
Trainer Chad Brown has two top contenders in this seven furlong challenge for three year old girls. Search Results just missed in the Kentucky Oaks, and followed it up by beating several of these rivals in June’s Acorn Stakes.
Search Results held off Obligatory and Make Mischief last time out. If a four-for-five horse isn’t good enough, Brown also has Always Carina running.
Always Carina dominated her first two races before finishing second to Zaajel in the Mother Goose Stakes on June 26.
Zaajel will seek a fourth victory in six career starts in The Test.
Bob Baffert is running Illumination on Saturday. It is the first starter in New York for Baffert since he was banned from working in the state after Medina Spirit’s positive test following the Kentucky Derby. Using litigation, Baffert has squeezed his way back in. Illumination has only a single win in five starts.
Pick: Search Results
Saratoga Oaks
Con Lima has run 12 times, and finished first or second in all but one of them. European invader Santa Barbara clipped her last time in the Belmont Oaks.
A six time winner, Con Lima has taken a pair of graded stakes this year. On Sunday, her top competition may again come from across the pond.
Rocky Sky has run all four of her races in Ireland. She has two victories, including a win in her stakes debut last time out in April. Trained by top turf conditioner Chad Brown, she has the look of an improving horse.
Creative Flair is expected to be near the pace in her first race stateside. The Godolphin homebred has three wins in six starts and finished third in a Group 3 event last time out.
Messidor has two wins in eight starts. She has back-to-back third place efforts against very strong stakes competition in England and Ireland.
Pick: Creative Flair
Adirondack Stakes
Asmussen has won this race four times including last year with Thoughtfully. He sends out Wicked Halo, who won her debut in Texas, and finished third in the Debutante Stakes on June 26 at Churchill Downs. She is the daughter of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner. Her mom, Just Wicked, won the Adirondack in 2015.
Ontheonesandtwos finished second in the Debutante. She easily won her career debut at Churchill Downs.
Mainstay won her first race at Monmouth Park, and returned to finish second opening day at Saratoga in the Schuylerville Stakes.
Mainstay broke poorly last month, and couldn’t reel in Pretty Birdie, who is skipping this event. Mainstay’s half sister Vequist won the Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga last summer.
Trainer Brad Cox won a maiden race at Belmont Park in June with Interstatedaydream. While this is a step up in competition, she was the favorite in that race, got the job done, and has high hopes.
Pick: Mainstay
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
