2019-20 German Bundesliga Relegation Odds: Paderborn & Union Berlin Favored for the Drop
- Capital club head for first season in top flight
- Struggle predicted for fellow promoted team
- Augbsurg may not escape this time around
Germany’s Bundesliga will feature a new name this season with Union Berlin arriving for its first-ever campaign in the top flight after 53 years in existence.
Bundesliga 2018-19 Relegation Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paderborn | -190 |
| Union Berlin | -180 |
| Augsburg | +190 |
| FC Koln | +225 |
| SC Freiburg | +250 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf | +450 |
| FSV Mainz | +575 |
| Hertha Berlin | +2000 |
| Schalke 04 | +2500 |
| Werder Bremen | +4000 |
*Odds taken at 2019/08/13
However, the analysts give neither the newcomers from the capital nor fellow-promoted side Paderborn much hope of remaining in the elite division.
Paderborn are rated as favorites for an instant return to 2. Bundesliga at -190, closely followed by Union Berlin at -180.
Augbsburg, who narrowly escaped relegation last season, are also tipped for the drop at +190.
FC Koln Tipped to Survive
But FC Koln, champions of 2. Bundesliga last season, are priced to closely miss the cut and survive at +225.
Paderborn spent one season in the Bundesliga in 2014-15 but were relegated instantly – actually falling into 3. Bundesliga in 2017-18 before their remarkable climb back to the top
They were promoted automatically as runners-up to Koln last May.
Club: SC Paderborn 07
Stadium: Benteler-Arena
Opened: 2008
Capacity: 15,000Paderborn’s home is the smallest of all the Bundesliga stadiums. ?
???️ #BLStadiums pic.twitter.com/ttoxm0aeCf
— Bundesliga English (@Bundesliga_EN) August 10, 2019
Paderborn have been hit by the departure of last season’s goal-scoring duo of Phillip Klement and Bernard Tepketey.
Sheer survival will be their aim after two successive promotions.
But they have been hit by the departure of last season’s goal-scoring duo of Phillip Klement and Bernard Tepketey.
Between them they contributed 26 of the side’s 76 goals in the 2018-19 season.
Klement has joined VfB Stuttgart while Kepkety has returned to parent club to Schalke 04 and was then loaned to Fortuna Dussledorf.
Shelton May Impress
Instead, they will rely upon the physically imposing talents of American striker Khiry Shelton, who can also play as a winger.
The former New York City FC and Sporting Kansas City forward was signed last January but was hampered by injuries.
With few funds, coach Steffen Baumgart has raided the free transfer and loan markets to recruit 12 new players to meet the demands of the Bundesliga.
Union Berlin defeated Stuttgart in the relegation/promotion playoff after finishing third in 2. Bundesliga.
But the lack of spending indicates Paderborn’s weakness. It will be a major achievement to survive.
Union Berlin defeated Stuttgart in the relegation/promotion playoff after finishing third in 2. Bundesliga.
They have spent small amounts to land defenders with Bundesliga experience. Marvin Freidrich has been signed permanently from Augsburg. They have also landed Neven Subotic, who won titles with Borussia Dortmund in 2011 and 2012.
That will improve a defense which conceded only 33 times in 2. Bundesliga last season.
The strengthening of Union’s squad is more comprehensive than that carried out by Paderborn.
Striker Anthony Ujah is another new arrival from FC Mainz. Another forward, Marcus Ingvartsen, has been signed from Belgium’s FC Genk.
⚽️ All the goals from our @DFBPokal_EN win at Germania Halberstadt on Sunday. #fcunion pic.twitter.com/GPDF7A7Kdk
— 1. FC Union Berlin (@fcunion_en) August 13, 2019
The strengthening of Union’s squad is more comprehensive than that carried out by Paderborn.
But in their first season at the top level, they are expected to be battling with bigger, more historic clubs like Koln, Fortuna Dusseldorf and Mainz against relegation as well as with Freiburg and, potentially, city rivals Hertha Berlin.
Augsburg finished 15th last season but are not favored to survive again.
Nine Bundesliga Seasons
They are in their ninth successive season of Bundesliga football.
Manager Manuel Baum paid with his job as they struggled last season but successor Martin Schmidt managed to stave off the drop.
However, they were hampered by the injury problems of Icelandic striker Alfred Finnbogasson. He missed 16 games of the league campaign but is fit again.
At the back, the Czech international duo, goalkeeper Tomas Koubek and centre-back Marek Suchy, have been recruited to strengthen a defense which conceded 71 goals last season.
Striker Simon Terrode scored 29 league goals last season and is one reason Koln are tipped to keep out of the relegation places.
Want to relive the drama of Sunday's DFB-Pokal first round penalty shoot-out madness against Wehen Wiesbaden? ??
Here's #effzeh Reporter, Guido Ostrowski's take on the goals and penalties from a nerve-jangling evening of cup action! ?⚪ pic.twitter.com/fKNJAEl8tT
— 1. FC Cologne (@fckoeln_en) August 13, 2019
FC Koln were promoted back to the Bundesliga at the first attempt after relegation in 2017-18.
Striker Simon Terrode scored 29 league goals last season and is one reason Koln are tipped to keep out of the relegation places.
Dutch full-back Kingsley Ehizibue, defender Sebastiaan Bornauw and midfielders Ellyes Skhiri and Birger Verstraete were signed in the close season as part of the defensive re-building for the return to the top division.
Best Bets to be relegated: Paderborn, Union Berlin, Augsburg
John Dillon is a leading member of the UK's sporting media, having spent three decades as a national newspaper soccer and sports writer, broadcaster and author. He has covered five World Cups, six European Championships and was Chief Sports Writer at the Daily Express for 14 years.
