Are Germany and Argentina Still Top World Cup Contenders?

• Did Germany save their tournament with a last minute win over Sweden?
• Could Argentina’s tournament be coming to an early end?
• See the odds for all 32 participating countries to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup

One of the biggest themes of World Cup 2018 has been the parity seen across the tournament in almost every group. Outside of watching each single game, the best way to see this parity is by looking at the futures odds.

Struggling Favorites

Uruguay is undefeated in Group A, but have only scored two goals. Spain and Portugal started the tournament off with a six-goal thriller but then struggled to get past Iran and Morocco in Group B. France is also 2-0-0 but needed a penalty goal to get past Australia.

Argentina is on the brink of elimination, Brazil needed stoppage times goals to get past Costa Rica, and the defending champion Germans could well be on their way out of the tournament if results don’t go their way on Wednesday. Odds to win the World Cup for many of these nations have changed dramitically based on some of the shocking performances and results thus far.

Host-Nation Russia Impressing

On the other side of the coin, the Russians have come flying out of the gates with two wins and eight goals, which puts them in the same conversation as England and Belgium, who have also filled their opponent’s nets with eight goals.

The odds have shortended slightly on the Red Devils and Three Lions to +800 and +900, respectively. Their wins over Tunisia and Panana came as little surprise, though.

The Russians actually have the best goal-differential in the entire tournament and have seen their odds drop to around +4000.

Croatia Looking Like a Real Contender

Croatia has looked impressive in shutting out Nigeria and Argentina and have seen their average odds shorten to +1200, compared to about +3200 when the tournament started. You can still have Croatia at +1400 at some sportsbooks.

What’s Wrong with the Germans?

The biggest shock of the tournament so far, though, was Mexico’s 1-0 win over Germany in Group F. Mexico are now trading for an average of +2700 to lift the trophy.

Despite all their star power the Germans were a 95′ minute Toni Kroos goal away from exiting the tournament after only their second match. Germany went down 0-1 to Sweden at the half on Saturday, before Marco Reus tied it in the 48′ minute. After Jérôme Boateng was shown red in the 82′ minute, Germany’s World Cup hopes looked to be fading out.

However Kroos’ goal means they’ll still control their fate when they play South Korea on Wednesday. The goal was the latest goal scored by Germany in their World Cup history, and also the first time since 1974 they have come from behind at half-time to win a World Cup match.

The reason Germany needs to win over South Korea and hope either Sweden loses to Mexico, or Germany wins by more than a potential Sweden win over Mexico, is because of their result against the Mexicans.

Head coach Joachim Löw brought many veterans to the World Cup but left out Man City youngster Leroy Sané. At 22, Sané had ten goals in the Premier League this season. Though Germany threw wave after wave of attacks at Mexico, no one could break through the Mexican defence.

Germany held a 76% advantage in possession, but truthfully the 1-0 defeat should have been much more had Mexico just been slightly more clinical in the final third. Despite their struggles, the Germans are still trading at only +650 to win the World Cup.

Group F Table

Argentina on the Brink of Elimination

Argentina’s stock has never been lower. They tied Iceland 1-1 in their first match, and Lionel Messi missed a penalty kick which could have sent them to victory. In their second game they were completely outclassed from start to finish against the Croatians and fell 3-0.

Striker Sergio Agüero who has Argentina’s only goal in the tournament is set to be benched as a result of a failed mutiny attempt against Head Coach Jorge Sampaoli.

It’s said Agüero and other senior team players approached Argentine FA President Claudio Tapia, demanding Sampaoli be sacked before the Nigeria match and that the players be in charge of team selection. Instead, Sampaoli has kept his job for the time being but squad changes will be on the way.

It’s not just the players who have it in for Sampaoli’s game tactics, as Argentine legend Diego Maradona was quoted as saying Sampaoli may as well “not go home” if he fails in Russia.

Former Argentina international and World Cup winner Osvaldo Ardiles said (translated to English), “Plan A of Sampaoli: Give the ball to Messi and wait for a miracle. If Plan A doesn’t work, Plan B. There is no plan B. Let alone plan C or D.”

Argentina’s only chance of survival will be a victory over the Super Eagles of Nigeria. Their odds to win the World Cup have gone from +900 on June 13 to +2200 today.

However, they will need to win and hope Iceland loses to Croatia. Alternatively a win by more goals over Nigeria than a win by Iceland over Croatia could also suffice.

Nigeria were also shut out by the Croatians 2-0, but rebounded with a 2-0 victory of their own over Iceland. Striker Ahmed Musa scored two goals in the victory and Nigeria controlled all facets of the game. Nigeria held a 16-9 and 4-3 advantage in shots and shots on target and also held 62-percent of possession.

Group D Table

Nigeria vs Argentina Betting Advice

Both Teams To Score (-110)
Argentina Over 2 Goals (+125) 
Goal Scored in Both Halves Yes (-135)

Nigeria’s win over Iceland actually did Argentina a favor, but they will likely be in a much less giving mood come Tuesday. No matter how I look at this I see goals. There is nothing to hold back here and a win by Nigeria guarantees qualification no matter what Iceland does.

Argentina has no option but to win and to possibly win big. The last time Messi had his back against the wall and Argentina faced failing to qualify for the World Cup in CONMEBOL qualifiers, all he did was go out and score a hat trick in a 3-1 win over Ecuador in the final game.

Nigeria vs Argentina Odds