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Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Odds & Preview: La Liga Round 28

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Mar 12, 2021 · 12:33 PM PST

Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea
Levante's Dani Gomez, left, fights for the ball with Atletico Madrid's Felipe during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between Atletico Madrid and Levante at the Wanda Metropolitano stadium in Madrid, Spain, Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
  • La Liga returns this week with matches taking place for the first time since March 10th
  • Athletic Bilbao host Atletico Madrid in the early kick-off on Sunday, June 14th
  • Get the odds, betting information and a pick below

La Liga is the latest major European league to restart after the season was postponed in March as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sevilla and Real Betis kicked things off on Thursday – there are matches on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as well.

It’s Sunday’s first match that’s our focus here. Athletic Bilbao, wedged in mid-table, host Atletico Madrid, who have endured a disappointing season to date. Atleti are 11 points off their city rivals Real and 13 behind league leaders Barcelona. If other results go their way this weekend, however, they could climb into the Champions League qualification spots.

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Athletic Bilbao pk, +0.5 (-111) +230 Over 2 (+100)
Atletico Madrid pk, -0.5 (-109) +129 Under 2 (-120)
Draw N/A +200 N/A

Odds taken Jun. 12.

Previous Meeting

The two clubs last faced each other back in October, which feels like a decade ago. Atleti ran out 2-0 victors on that occasion in what was a relatively even game. It was a textbook Diego Simeone performance; low possession, nine shots, and a clean sheet. Simeone will be hoping for something similar this time around, though it’s worth noting that Bilbao won when they hosted Atleti last season.

That match, of course, was played in front of fans. One of the lessons from the Bundesliga has been the drastic decrease in home advantage. San Mames is one of the great venues in European football – seven of Bilbao’s nine La Liga wins this season have come at home.

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Atleti have been subpar on the road this season. They have won just three of their 13 away matches. Draws have held Simeone’s side back.

Some of that can be put down to how the team is set up, but the decline (or complete disappearance) of home advantage might change the scenario. With no fans in the stadium, Atleti’s performances away from Wanda Metropolitano may improve.

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid La Liga Statistics

Athletic Bilbao
VS
Atletico Madrid
10th League Position 6th
29 Goals scored 31
23 Goals conceded 21
49.4% Average possession 48.6%
67 yellows, 1 red Cards 63 yellows, 2 reds
11.1 Shots per match 12.1
54% Shots inside the area 58%

Misfiring Attacks

Anyone hoping for a goal-fest will want to pick another match to watch. These two sides are the lowest-scoring teams in the top half of La Liga. Bilbao rank bottom of the league in Understat’s non-penalty expected goals. Atleti have been better at creating chances – ranking fourth by that same metric – but chance conversion has been an issue. Alvaro Morata, who has eight goals, is the only player in the squad with more than five in La Liga this term.

Only Real have conceded fewer than Atleti. Bilbao’s 23 conceded is good for the third-best defensive record in the league. These are two teams that can stifle and want to be able to play in transition. Inaki Williams is at his best when given space to exploit, a luxury Atleti will not allow. The visitors will hope Diego Costa can find something close to his best form after injury and poor form have made him a non-factor in 2019-20.

Uncertainty on League’s Return

The fading home advantage should favor Atletico. Perhaps the break has given their attacking players a chance to recharge their batteries. It’s no surprise to see Simeone’s side favored to win this one, but it’s not a straight forward decision for bettors.

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The ‘Under’ at two goals is a tempter, though there’s a possibility that fatigue post-break opens the game up and we see more goals than we might have expected.

Atleti’s quality should shine through. The lack of an atmosphere benefits the stronger teams. It might not be the prettiest match of the weekend, but Atletico to win and keep a clean sheet is a good value bet considering their defensive solidity and Bilbao’s issues in the final third.

Pick: Atletico Madrid to win, both teams to score (no) (+210)

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