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Athletic Bilbao vs Granada Copa del Rey Semifinals Leg 1 Odds & Pick

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 12:54 PM PDT

Athletic Bilbao's Ander Capa
Athletic Bilbao's Ander Capa, right, celebrates with his teammate after scoring his side's first goal during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between Real Madrid and Athletic Club Bilbao at the Alfredo Di Stefano stadium in Madrid, Spain, Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2020. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
  • On Wednesday at 3:00 pm EST, the Copa del Rey semifinals begin, with Athletic Bilbao set to host Granada in the first leg
  • Athletic Bilbao and Granada are ranked 9th and 10th in La Liga respectively, only separated by one point
  • Currently, Athletic Bilbao are the favorites with a moneyline of (-135)

The Copa del Rey saw a huge shakeup in talent during the quarterfinals which saw both Real Madrid and Barcelona defeated. One of the semifinals includes Athletic Bilbao and Granada, in what should be a tightly contested fixture as both teams are vying for a mid-table position in La Liga.

The match is, of course, a two-leg fixture, with the first match being played at the home of Bilbao, San Mames. In domestic home fixtures, Gaizka Garitano’s side is 6-3-2 which will make the challenge for Granada even tougher, in what could be just a search for an away goal. The second half of the aggregate match-up will not be played until March 5th, so expect Bilbao to really come out for it and try to get that early lead at home.

Athletic Bilbao vs Granada Leg 1 Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Athletic Bilbao -1/2 (-136) -135 Over 2 (-111)
Granada +1/2 (+102) +411 Under 2 (-119)
Draw N/A +223 N/A

Odds taken on Feb. 10

Granada the Unfair Underdogs?

Despite being the heavy favorites, Bilbao and Granada are closer in quality than one might assume. The underdogs are only trailing Bilbao by a single point in La Liga after the same amount of matches played. Their reverse fixture on December 1st, only saw them lose 2-0, and one goal came from a penalty. With their recent form seeing them win four from six, beating teams like Espanyol and Valencia, there is no reason they could not push on for a result here.

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However, keeping the circumstances of the match in mind, Granada’s strategy will probably be to pack it in, limit any damage and snag a late away goal. This will be crucial in terms of the final scoreline of the first leg. Unfortunately, Granada’s talented right side of Victor Diaz and Antonio Puertas will be going up against Yuri, who has performed very well this season at age 30.

Athletic Bilbao vs Granada Statistics

Athletic Bilbao
VS
Granada
9th (31 Points) Standing in La Liga 10th (30 Points)
1 Goals per game 1.2
10.8 Shots per game 10.1
49% Average Possession % 45.2%

Next, for Athletic Bilbao as a team, they have been mediocre lately, dropping 12 points in La Liga since the beginning of January. They obviously beat Barcelona to get to this stage of the competition, which is a testament to their grit and resilience to come out and put in a shift every 90 minutes. Nevertheless, they have been poor, and despite the favoring moneyline, this match is much closer than bookmakers are expecting.

Best Bet

For this match, the best bet is going to be a little bit more bold than usual. With the scoring volatility of these two teams, and their past results against each other, the spread and total are going to be a little risky. With this being said, the best bet is going to be on the draw at (+223).

With this value, you could double your money on a match that will be closer than people expect. We see it all the time in aggregate fixtures, where the first match is a little dry as the teams feel the game out. Granada will be trying to get home on a level scoreline if possible which really favors this result to occur. Nonetheless, it will still be an entertaining match, with a lot of sway for who gets into the Copa del Rey final.

My Pick: ML Draw (+223)

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