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Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen UCL Matchday 3 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 1:35 PM PDT

Atleti manager Diego Simeone
La Liga's Atletico Madrid travel to Germany to face Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday. Photo by Carlos Delgado (Wiki Commons).
  • Atletico Madrid lead Group D
  • Bayer Leverkusen have lost first two group matches
  • Sportsbooks heavily favors Diego Simeone’s side

Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen have met six times this decade with the most recent clash coming in 2017. Atletico have won two of the six, while Leverkusen have won just once, a 1-0 win in the 2014-15 last 16.

They faced each other again in the last 16 two seasons later. Kevin Gameiro and Antoine Griezmann led Atletico to a 4-2 away victory in the first leg before a stellar display from Jan Oblak secured a 0-0 draw at Vicente Calderon as Atletico progressed to the quarterfinals. Diego Simeone’s side were later knocked out by Real Madrid in the last four thanks to a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick.

Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen UCL Matchday 3 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Atletico Madrid -0.5 (-121) -159 O 2.5 (+104)
Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 (+105) +420 U 2.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +275 N/A

*Odds taken 10/16/19

Atletico’s Troubles

Simeone is still there, but Atleti’s squad is very different to the one in the last matchup between these two teams. The venue is different too with Atletico into their third season at the spectacular Wanda Metropolitano. They are unbeaten at home so far this season, though that doesn’t tell the full story. Simeone’s side have failed to score in their last two matches at Wanda Metropolitano and were held to a 0-0 draw by Real Valladolid before the international break.

No player has scored more than two goals for Atleti this season. Chance creation and finishing have been a problem. Against Celta Vigo, they made enough opportunities to win but failed to convert. Against Real Valladolid, the attack was stifled and limited to low-percentage shots.

The defense remains impenetrable. A draw wouldn’t be a satisfactory result on Tuesday, however. Atletico need to get their forwards firing with Juventus pushing them for top spot.

Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen UCL 2019-20 Statistics

Atletico Madrid
VS
Bayer Leverkusen
1st Position in group 4th
4 Goals scored 1
52.3% Average possession 61.3%
Three yellows, no reds Cards Two yellows, no reds
19.5 Shots per game 13
85.7% Pass completion 88.4%

Leverkusen’s Desperation

A Matchday 1 defeat to Lokomotiv Moscow put Bayer Leverkusen in a difficult position in Group D. A heavy loss to Juventus in Matchday 2 as good as eliminated them from contention unless they can pick up points in both matches against Atletico.

Leverkusen will have plenty of possession but breaking down this Atletico defense is one of the toughest tasks in world football. Kai Havertz needs to be at his very best if Leverkusen are to find a way through. It will be interesting what shape Peter Bosz opts for after fielding a back three against RB Leipzig last time out.

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Having looked like a team who could sneak into the last 16 at the start of the group stage, Leverkusen shouldn’t be written off despite poor results against Lokomotiv Moscow and Juventus.

Value on the Draw

Leverkusen will set up to attack from the first whistle. This could be an attack versus defense match with Atletico happy to sit deep and look for a goal on the counter. The onus is on the visitors as they look to turn their Champions League campaign around.

There’s no value in the under at -120, particularly if Leverkusen end up chasing the game. Atletico’s recent goal-scoring struggles make the draw the best bet.

Pick: Draw at +275

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