Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Odds & Prediction – La Liga Week 6 (Sept 18)

• Sunday is the first Madrid derby of the 2022-23 campaign as Atletico and Real lock horns
• Los Blancos are a slim +129 favorite here
• Read on for the odds, preview, and Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction

La Liga matchday six will be highlighted by the always entertaining El Derbi Madrileno as Atletico Madrid plays host to league leaders Real Madrid on Sunday, September 18th at the Civitas Metropolitano. The kick-off is scheduled for 3 PM ET. Keep reading for the Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction.

Atleti is unbeaten in three league matches including a 4-1 thrashing of Celta Vigo last weekend, but they did lose to Bayer Leverkusen mid-week in Champions League action. Los Blancos meanwhile, has yet to drop a single point across all competitions and beat Mallorca last Sunday.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Odds

Odds as of September 16th at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this La Liga match.

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The odds are just slightly favoring the visitors here at +129 on the moneyline. Last term, the two sides won one game apiece, with Atleti actually securing a 1-0 victory on home soil in the most recent meeting. Madrid remains a favorite in La Liga odds at +120.

Over/Under & Spread

There are typically very few goals scored in the Madrid derby over the years. In fact, the under 2.5 goals, which sits at -115 odds for Sunday, has been hit in nine of the last 10 fixtures and six in a row. Expect it to be a low-scoring affair once again given the history.

Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction

It’s been a respectable beginning to the campaign for Atleti, going 3-1-1 in La Liga which puts them in seventh place at the moment. They’ve bagged nine goals in five games while conceding just four, which is a good sign ahead of an important fixture with a Real side who have so much quality in the final third.

Diego Simeone’s side comfortably handled Celta Vigo on matchday five, putting on an impressive attacking display. But, Los Colchoneros looked quite poor on Tuesday in the Champions League in a 2-0 defeat. Atletico was on the brink of securing a lone point against Leverkusen until the German outfit scored twice in a span of just three minutes late in the second half. If the hosts can find a victory on Sunday though, it’ll be the first time since February of 2015 they beat Real in back-to-back games.

Atletico vs Real Madrid Key Stats

There’s simply no other way to put it. The reigning UCL and La Liga champions are playing tremendous football. They’ve won every single game this term, going a perfect 5-0-0 domestically. In the process, Carlo Ancelotti’s attack is firing on all cylinders, finding the back of the net 15 times. Vinicius Junior leads the squad with four goals and an assist, while Karim Benzema has also added three tallies in league action.

Karim Benzema looks set to miss the Madrid derby through injury (@mundodeportivo) pic.twitter.com/77uhCIghwr

— Football España (@footballespana_) September 16, 2022

However, the Frenchman is doubtful to feature against Atletico due to a thigh injury that he sustained against Celtic on September 6th. If he’s unavailable to play, Eden Hazard may get another start with Vinicius and Rodrygo on opposite sides of him in a front three. This is undoubtedly Madrid’s toughest test yet, therefore the Brazilian duo must be at their best up top versus a stout Atleti backline.

Atletico vs Real Madrid Projected Lineups and Injuries

Atletico Madrid Projected Lineup: 
Grbic; Reinildo, Witsel, Hermoso; Molina, Llorente, Koke, De Paul, Carrasco; Morata, Felix

Injuries & Absences: Savic, Gimenez, Oblak, Lemar, Reguilon

Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Modric, Tchouameni, Kroos; Hazard, Rodrygo, Vinicius

Injuries & Absences: Benzema, Vazquez

As you can see, Atletico is dealing with a plethora of absences, including keeper Jan Oblak. The likes of Stefan Savic, Thomas Lemar, and Jose Gimenez are all key components for Simeone. Real Madrid only has one confirmed absence in Lucas Vazquez, although it’s looking very likely Benzema misses out.

Atletico vs Real Madrid Best Bet

Even without Benzema, I still like Madrid’s chances here. they’ve steered clear of defeat in six of their last seven away games on the red side of the Spanish capital and have more than enough firepower to come out victorious. But, like previous matchups, I do see a ton of value in the under. Don’t expect a ton of goals on Sunday.

Pick: Real Madrid (+129), Under 2.5 Goals (-115)