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Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Odds & Preview – La Liga January 12

Carlos Verde

by Carlos Verde in Soccer News

Updated Jan 11, 2021 · 9:10 AM PST

Sevilla's Youssef En-Nesyri
Sevilla's Youssef En-Nesyri, right, celebrates with his second goal against Rennes during the Champions League, group E soccer match between Rennes and Sevilla at the Roazhon Park stadium in Rennes, France, Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020. (AP Photo/David Vincent)
  • League leader Atletico Madrid hosts surging Sevilla on Tuesday (3:30 pm ET) in a rescheduled Matchday 1 contest
  • It’s a clash of Spain’s two hottest teams, with Atleti riding a four-game league winning streak and Sevilla undefeated (3-1-0) in its last four
  • Get a breakdown of both clubs, Tuesday’s odds and a few value picks below

Spain’s two best defensive teams meet at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on Tuesday, as Atletico Madrid (12-2-1) entertains Sevilla (9-3-4).

Diego Simeone’s Atleti has been nothing short of incredible defensively in La Liga, conceding just six times in 15 matches (0.4/game) and earning a win in 80-percent of its matches thus far in 2020-21.

Julen Lopetegui’s Sevilla has been relatively airtight, too, averaging just 0.81 conceded goals/game — though the nervionenses are fresh off conceding a season-high two goals in last week’s 3-2 win over Sociedad.

Atleti has Real Madrid and Barcelona hot on its tail — albeit with three games in-hand — while Sevilla is setting up to be in a dogfight for Champions League qualification this season.

It’s a key match for both, with plenty of betting intrigue to boot.

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla ATM +0.5 (+102)  | SEV -0.5 (-124) ATM +114  | SEV +300 | DRAW +195 Ov 2.5 (+155) | Un 2.5 (-200)

Odds taken Jan 11 at DraftKings

The recent head-to-head history in the matchup is dead-even, with the past four league clashes ending in draws — and with both teams scoring. Under 2.5 has hit in three of those four meetings.

Atletico Madrid: Efficiency Wins Championships

For the first time since 2015-16, it appears Atletico Madrid will be in the mix to win La Liga.

While Simeone’s squad saw a five-game winning streak in all competitions snapped by a shock 1-0 defeat at third-division Cornella in cup play last Wednesday, there is little doubt that the rojiblancos are an elite outfit.

Two-thirds (8/12) of Atleti’s league wins have come via clean sheet, and the club’s plus-23 goal differential is the best in La Liga; the shrewd acquisition of Luis Suarez is paying dividends, with the Uruguayan leading the team on nine goals — though Marcos Llorente (6) and Joao Felix (5) have also impressed at points offensively.

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Stats

Atletico Madrid
VS
Sevilla
12-2-1 (2.53 pts/game) 2020-21 La Liga Record 9-3-4  (1.88 pts/game)
29 (1.93/game) Goals scored 21 (1.31/game)
6 (0.40/game) Goals conceded 15 (0.81/game)
Luis Suarez (9) Leading Scorer Youssef En-Nesyri (8)
W – W – W – W – L La Liga Form W – D – W – W – D
3rd 2019-20 Finish 4th
12-9-11 H2H Record Since 2007 (W-L-T) 9-12-11

Sevilla: Kings of the Under

Prior to Saturday’s five-goal slugfest win over Sociedad, Sevilla had been one of La Liga’s surest bets as an Under play.

Under 2.5 had hit in six-straight Sevilla league matches prior to the 3-2 game at the Sanchez Pizjuan on the weekend, and seven of the team’s last eight.

YouTube video

The squad’s road defensive form in league play is impeccable, with three clean sheets in four matches.

Sevilla locked up its bench boss through 2024 (MARCA) — a contract that would be the longest of Lopetegui’s career in club management, and a sign that the club is happy with both his results and style of play.

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Best Bets

The numbers are plain for all to see: 67-percent of Atleti’s games have hit the Under 2.5 this season, while Sevilla’s matches have gone Over 2.5 just 25-percent of the time.

Tuesday’s visitors have seen the second-fewest total goals/game on the road (1.88) and are likely to line up defensively against the league’s first-place outfit.

Three of Sevilla’s last five league matches have been tied at halftime, and we believe that Lopetegui’s pragmatic approach combined with Atleti’s modus operandi of one-goal games lend themselves to a possible halftime tie on Tuesday.

Picks: Under 2 (-109), 1H Draw (-113)

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