Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 5
- Barcelona hosts Bayern Munich in Matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage on Wednesday, October 26th at 3:00 pm ET
- In the reverse fixture, Bayern beat Barcelona by a score of 2-0 at the Allianz Arena
- Get the Barcelona vs Bayern Munich prediction below
By the time of the Barcelona versus Bayern Munich’s kickoff on Wednesday afternoon, the Blaugrana will know how significant this Champions League match really is. Currently, they hold the third spot in Group C, on a mere four points; this puts them three points shy of Inter Milan’s total. In turn, if Milan cruises past Viktoria Plzen at 12:45 pm, Barcelona are automatically sent down to the Europa League. Unfortunately, even a Drake OVO kit cannot buy you out of a second straight year in Europe’s little brother league.
Jokes aside, this is still a top European clash amongst football’s most royal of names. Moreover, Bayern is not a side that backs away from a big occasion, even with qualification secured. Julian Nagelsmann will embrace the challenge from Xavi and company, and will surely strive to do the double on their Catalonian opposition.
In truth, Barcelona will probably feel the pressure, especially under the floodlights of the Camp Nou. They are 2-1-9 against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, with their last five matches ending in failure. Even if they are destined for the Europa League, they will want to leave with pride.
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | +127 |
| Bayern Munich | +180 |
| Draw | +275 |
Odds as of October 24th from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Champions League match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
Overall, all three moneyline results have plus odds with Barcelona’s being the shortest at +127. Even at the Camp Nou, this is a bit surprising. Bayern have won three out of their five games here, making them one of three clubs to have won more than they have lost at the famous ground. Their odds of +180 make them feel like longshots, but really it is just good value.
Also, Bayern Munich have +550 Champions League odds.
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Over/Under
Furthermore, this match is expected to be full of goals. The odds for the total on over 3.5 goals only has odds of +105, showing an implied probability of 48.8%. In their last eight combined matches across all competitions, this play has hit 75% of the time, averaging 4.6 total goals per match.
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Statistics
| 2.00 | Goals per game | 3.25 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals per game | 2.30 |
| 1.75 | Goals allowed per game | 0.50 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.15 |
| 65.9% | Possession % | 59.8% |
| 0.0% | Clean Sheet % | 75.0% |
| 17.5 | Shots per game | 17.5 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 Champions League play.
Historically, their last five head-to-head matches have also averaged 4.6 total goals, skewed by Bayern’s 8-2 thrashing of Barcelona in 2020. Nonetheless, the reverse fixture in September ended 2-0, obviously falling under this threshold. All in all, I would lean on the side of more goals being scored than less, but +105 is not enough value for me to make an over 3.5 goals play.
Our squad for tomorrow's @ChampionsLeague game in Barcelona 📋⭐#packmas #UCL #FCBFCB pic.twitter.com/DjGihTeWmN
— FC Bayern Munich (@FCBayernEN) October 25, 2022
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Projected Lineups and Injuries
Barcelona Projected Lineup: Ter Stegen, Alonso, Kounde, Garcia, Bellerin, Busquets, Pedri, Gavi, Dembele, Lewandowski, Raphinha
Major Injuries & Absences: Depay, Araujo, Roberto, Christensen (questionable)
Bayern Munich Projected Lineup: Ulreich, Davies, De Ligt, Upamecano, Pavard, Kimmich, Goretzka, Musiala, Coman, Mane, Gnabry
Major Injuries & Absences: Neuer, Sane, Hernandez, Sarr
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Firstly, it would be naïve not to mention Bayern Munich’s current injury list. The two major absences for Wednesday include Manuel Neuer and Leroy Sane. Despite Sane’s ten goals, he is relatively easy to replace given Bayern’s plethora of attacking choices.
However, the injury to Neuer is slightly more concerning. Sven Ulreich is his backup, a player who had a 3-2-3 record in eight starts across all competitions last season for Bayern. Furthermore, Ulreich’s save percentage of 64.9% in the last 365 days puts him in only the 17th percentile for goalkeepers in Europe’s top five leagues.
Robert Lewandowski is LaLiga and Champions League topscorer 🙌
WHAT A SIGNING 👑😍⚡ pic.twitter.com/JwZz4aeDrh
— FC Barcelona Fans Nation (@fcbfn_live) October 23, 2022
Ulreich is just not an elite shot-stopper, which could see Bayern picked out at times. Conversely, Robert Lewandowski on the other side of the pitch will be licking his lips at a ripe opportunity.
With that being said, I still think Bayern Munich will outscore Barcelona on the night in our Barcelona vs Bayern Munich picks. Jamal Musiala is an absolute star and will have Sadio Mane, Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry in front of him. Barcelona will still be without Ronald Araujo and Sergi Roberto, which creates sort of a makeshift defense.
Finally, Barcelona have lost all but one of their games this season against major European clubs (Bayern, Real Madrid, & Inter Milan). I expect them to get on the scoresheet, but to inevitably fall once again to the Bavarian giants.
Pick: Bayern Munich Win & Over 2.5 Goals (+250)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
