Bayern Munich vs Benfica Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 4
- Bayern Munich and Benfica matchup at Allianz Arena on Tuesday, November, 2nd
- Bayern has a 100% record in the group following an emphatic 4-0 over Benfica in Lisbon on Matchday 3
- Read below for the latest Bayern vs Benfica odds, statistics and betting prediction
As expected, Bayern Munich have taken complete control of Group E. With 12 goals scored and none conceded in their three wins, they have all but qualified for the knockout phase. Benfica remains second in the group despite a 4-0 defeat to Bayern last time out. Taking anything from the Allianz Arena will be a bonus for Jorge Jesus’ team.
Benfica is aiming to make the last 16 for the first time in 2016-17. Bayern possesses loftier ambitions for this season’s Champions League, but with the prospect of a competitive title race in the Bundesliga, Julian Nagelsmann will be desperate to get qualification wrapped up in Bavaria on Tuesday.
Bayern vs Benfica Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern vs Benfica | BAY -2 (+120) | BEN +2 (+105) | BAY -525 | BEN +1300 | DRAW +700 | Ov 3.5 (-120) | Un 3.5 (+100) |
Odds as of Nov 1 at DraftKings
Team News
It would take a real injury crisis to trouble Bayern. Lucas Hernandez went off injured at the weekend and might sit this one out, but his absence won’t be felt too strongly. There are doubts over the availability of Leon Goretzka too, though Nagelsmann is spoilt for choice in midfield with Marcel Sabitzer and Corentin Tolisso competing for a spot in the XI.
Benfica have a lot of selection issues. Valentino Lozaro, Gil Dias, Haris Seferovic, Andre Almeida and Rodrigo Pinho are all out for the trip to Germany. Roman Yaremchuk is fit to lead the line with Seferovic’s continued absence, but the Ukrainian has struggled of late with just one goal in his last seven appearances for club and country.
📸 #VSCSLB #AllianzCup #WeAreBenfica pic.twitter.com/qWvYxT1sid
— SL Benfica (@slbenfica_en) October 27, 2021
Jesus is expected to name a similar side to the one that lost 4-0 in Lisbon on Matchday 3. Bayern dominated with over 65% possession and 21 shots in that match, but Jesus’ is likely to persevere with the 3-4-3.
Bayern’s Unstoppable Attack
There have been issues with Bayern’s defense at times this season. Weaker opponents have got more chances than usually expected, but that minor issue has been outweighed by the sheer goal scoring machine that Nagelsmann is overseeing. They lead Europe’s top five leagues in expected goal difference per 90 by a considerable margin, and their 38 goals scored is nine more than anyone else.
Lewandowski finished off this free kick routine perfectly 👌 pic.twitter.com/qCXoCbYx7Z
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) October 30, 2021
In their last four league and Champions League matches, Die Roten have scored at least four goals. Union Berlin scored a couple at the weekend, but still lost by three. They picked apart Benfica’s defense at will when they met in Portugal, and there’s no reason to expect any different on Tuesday.
Benfica has kept just two clean sheets in nine matches in all competitions. They even conceded three to Vitoria de Guimaraes in the cup in midweek. Even the world’s best defenses need to be on top form and have a bit of luck to keep Bayern’s attack quiet. Benfica are far from that – they could quickly end up in damage limitation.
Bayern Munich vs Benfica Champions League Statistics
| WWW | Form | DWL |
| 12 | Goals scored | 3 |
| 59.5% | Average possession | 47.8% |
| 5 yellows, 0 reds | Cards | 9 yellows, 0 reds |
| 20 | Shots per match | 10.7 |
| 52% | Shots inside the area | 75% |
| +2.02 | Expected goal difference per 90 | -0.12 |
Bayern Should Cover
Bayern have won nine of their last 12 matches by three or more goals. They don’t take their off foot the pedal when they get a comfortable lead, as was shown when these two teams met just a couple of weeks’ ago. Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman have the pace to punish Benfica on the break if they are forced to chase the game, and the finishing of Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller will punish even the slightest defensive lapse.
There’s a huge gap between these sides. Benfica may still qualify from the group, but after losing so heavily at home, it’s hard any confidence in them when they travel to the Allianz Arena.
Pick: Bayern -2 (+120)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
