Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga Matchday 11 Odds & Pick

• Second-place Borussia Dortmund host fourth-place Bayern Munich on Bundesliga Matchday 11
• Bayern Munich will be playing their first league match since sacking manager Niko Kovac
• Bayern a strong -185 favorite on Saturday

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It’s one of the great footballing rivalries. Think Real Madrid vs Barcelona, Boca Juniors vs River Plate, Liverpool vs Man Utd, Celtic vs Rangers, well, Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund is right up there.

Even though this season has produced the unusual sight of Bayern outside the Bundesliga’s top two, nothing alters the fact that any clash between these German giants is massive.

Arguably, with Bayern not dominating the league, as has become commonplace for the Bavarians, the stakes are even higher when they meet in the Allianz Arena at the weekend on Saturday, November 9, at 12:30 pm EST.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

All odds taken on November 7, 2019

Despite starting the game in fourth place, on 17 points, Bayern are still odds-on favorites, with Dortmund out to just under 4/1. The standings don’t support this however, as Dortmund (18 pts) are currently one point and two places better off than Bayern, with the league being currently led by Borussia Monchengladbach (22 pts). Joining this trio in the current top four are RB Leipzig who are third and also on 18 points.

Bavarian Angst

It’s been a turbulent week in Munich however, with Bayern firing coach Nico Kovac last Sunday after they had been humiliated 5-1 away at Eintracht Frankfurt. The search for a new coach is ongoing, with former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger the current favorite, but in temporary charge is Hansi Flick – a member of Kovac’s coaching team.

Under Flick’s stewardship, the Bavarians won 2-0 in midweek in their home Champions League tie with Olympiacos but, unsurprisingly in the circumstances, it was a disjointed and uninspiring performance. More of the same on Saturday and it could play into Borussia’s hands.

Bundesliga Head-to-Head Stats

The stats show there is, as ever, little to choose between these two but it is notable how many more shots Bayern have taken. On the flip side, Dortmund’s players have covered significantly more ground.

These games tend to produce goals and the pair have already met this season – in the German season opener known as the German Super Cup. It was a game Dortmund won 2-0, goals coming from Paco Alcacer and Jadon Sancho.

Three on the Bounce for Dortmund

Also worth noting is that these two have produced no draws in their previous six meetings, with each of the last five being won by the home side. The last time they met at the Allianz Arena, back in April, Bayern won 5-0 with goals from Hummels, Lewandowski (2), Martinez and Gnabry.

For their part, Dortmund head into Saturday’s game off the back of a four-game unbeaten run and three consecutive wins. On Tuesday, in their home Champions League match against Inter Milan, they came back from a two-goal deficit to win the game 3-2, goals from Achraf Hakimi (2) and Julian Brandt. The yellow and black are in good form and will head to the Allianz confident of getting a good result.

"The performance of our team in recent weeks and the results have shown us that there was need for action." https://t.co/oaOwvlreIl

— Mirror Football (@MirrorFootball) November 3, 2019

Given Bayern’s stuttering form and turbulent week, there’s no value whatsoever in the home win but there is a good argument here for Dortmund to buck the trend of home wins in this fixture. They are in good shape and I back them to make the most of the mini-crisis in Munich.

Pick: Borussia Dortmund to win (+388)