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Best Value to Finish Top 4 in Bundesliga

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 4:05 PM PDT

Timo Werner
Timo Werner has 11 goals on the year and he and RB Leipzig are currently fourth in the German Bundesliga. By Granada (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Which teams have the best chance to finish in the Bundesliga Top 4?
  • Can Monchengladbach and Leipzig hold onto their spots?
  • Which team outside the current top four offers the best value?

With Borussia Dortmund jumping out to a six-point lead over second place Bayern, the title race may be out of reach for most sides. But much is still to be decided in the Bundesliga Top 4.

With four Champions League spots up for grabs, third place Borussia Monchengladbach and fourth place RB Leipzig look to be heavy favorites to maintain their positions.

Odds to Finish Top 4 in Bundesliga

Team Odds to Finish Top 4 in Bundesliga (01/17/19)
     Borussia Monchengladbach -250
  RB Leipzig -200
Eintracht Frankfurt +330
Hoffenheim +350
Bayer Leverkusen +700
Wolfsburg +1000
Hertha Berlin +4000
Schalke +4000
Werder Bremen +5000
Mainz +20000

*For a full list please visit the link in the table

Monchengladbach and Leipzig Both Look Safe

Monchengladbach were ninth last season with 47 points, but at the midway mark of 2018-19 they’ve already collected 33 points, putting them on pace for 66 points should their form hold up.

At that rate they should easily maintain their position. Last season second place Schalke finished with 63 points. From there, all of third, fourth and fifth tied with only 55 points.

Gladbach have the exact same goals scored and conceded as Bayern Munich but have won one fewer match, leaving them just three points off second.

2024 UEFA Champions League Odds Tracker
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RB Leipzig also find themselves on pace to remain inside the Top 4 with 31 points after 17 matches. At that pace they would finish above the average points needed over the last five seasons of 58.8. That would still be cutting it close and any drop in form could see them fall out of the top four.

Points of 4th Place Team for Past 5 Years

Year Points
2018 55
2017 62
2016 55
2015 61
2014 61

Leipzig are well-balanced with the league’s stingiest defense having only allowed 17 goals and have two of the Bundesliga’s top scorers in Timo Werner and Yussuf Poulsen. The two combined have 19 goals and are both in the top eight in league scoring.

Leipzig are well-balanced with the league’s stingiest defense having only allowed 17 goals and have two of the Bundesliga’s top scorers in Timo Werner and Yussuf Poulsen.

RBL will have to improve their record against some of the league’s better competition to stay on course. Their four losses have come against Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Freiburg, and Bayern; three of those teams are among the top five.

In-Form Wolfsburg Eye Top 4

The 2018-19 season didn’t get off to the best of starts for VfL Wolfsburg. The side that finished 16th last year, continued poorly by only winning twice in their opening eight matches.

However Die Wölfe have turned their season around since a 1-0 win over Leipzig on November 24th. The win has sparked a run which has seen Wolfsburg go undefeated in six matches, while winning five.

Wolfsburg have gone undefeated in six matches, while winning five.

That makes Wolfsburg the side with the fourth-best record over the past ten weeks and the second-hottest side over the past five weeks.

Wolfsburg did suffer a blow during the winter break in losing forward Daniel Ginczek to a ligament injury in his foot sustained during a friendly. Ginczek is the team’s second-leading scorer with five goals and will be out several weeks.

If there’s a place Wolfsburg need to improve, it’s the form in front of their own fans. At only 3-3-3 they are ranked as the 12th best home team.

Buying Opportunity on Wolfsburg and Frankfurt

I think now may be the time to get piece of Wolfsburg at long odds of +1000 and possibly sixth place Eintracht Frankfurt at +330. Each will have winnable matches coming out of the break, with Wolfsburg traveling to 13th place Schalke, while Frankfurt will host 11th place Freiburg.

By comparison, RBL will face a stiffer challenge with leaders Dortmund on Saturday. Should the result be similar to the 4-1 defeat they suffered at the hands of Dortmund earlier this year, odds may adjust accordingly.

At the very least you may be able to find a better price on RBL after this weekend.

The additional contenders include Hoffenheim and Leverkusen. Hoffenheim matches are typically exciting with goals coming from both sides. However they simply can’t win matches having collected the most draws in the league.

In the case of Leverkusen, they’re currently well off pace to reach the top four and have been outscored on the season by three goals.

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