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Can Anyone Catch Barcelona in La Liga Title Race?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 3:31 PM PDT

Barcelona
Barcelona are in the driver's seat atop the La Liga table. Can they win the title for the fourth time in five years? By Save The Dream (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Barcelona have run out to a five-point lead atop the La Liga table
  • Do second place Atlético Madrid have a chance at catching the league-leaders?
  • Is it too late for perennial contenders Real Madrid?

At nearly the halfway mark of the La Liga campaign, Barcelona have been almost perfect with a 12-4-2 record and 40 points.

They lead the La Liga table by five points over second place Atlético Madrid and are heavy favorites to claim the title with odds of -1000.

La Liga Championship Odds

Team Odds to Win the La Liga Championship  (01/09/18)
Barcelona -1000
Atlético Madrid +700
Real Madrid +1400
Sevilla +5000
Valencia +100000

Barca Leading the Pack

Last year’s champions are at it again and look to be on pace for their 26th La Liga championship.

Barcelona are on a five-match win streak where they’ve scored 15 goals while only conceding once. The rest of the league has struggled to match the scoring prowess of the Catalonians as their 50 goals scored are a whole 19 more than the next highest scoring side. That side is tenth-place Levante with only 23 points.

Combine Messi’s goals with the 12 by teammate Luis Suárez and their 28 goals outscore 16 teams.

Messi’s 16 goals are equal to that of three team’s total goals scored. Combine Messi’s goals with the 12 by teammate Luis Suárez and their 28 goals outscore 16 teams.

Real Madrid, typically the biggest rival for Barça, have seen a season to forget thus far. The graphic above basically sums up their struggles.

Real have scored fewer goals than such sides as Sevilla, Levante, and Celta Vigo. Much of that can be attributed to the very obvious Ronaldo-size hole up front. Gareth Bale, the man expected to pick up the slack has only managed four goals on the season.

Real Madrid recently drew 2-2 to 18th place Villarreal and lost 2-0 to 11th place Real Sociedad.

Madrid have turned in several lacklustre performances and most recently drew 2-2 to 18th place Villarreal and lost 2-0 to 11th place Real Sociedad. A full 10 points in the rear of Barça, Real should focus on at least finishing top four and prioritize this year’s Champions League.

Atletico Madrid Still in Title Contention

If there’s a side who still stand a chance of catching the Catalan giants it has to be Atlético Madrid. Real’s rivals from  Madrid are priced at +700 odds to win their first LaLiga title since the 2013/14 season.

Diego Simeone’s side are currently second in La Liga with a 9-8-1 record and 35 points.

Atletico lack the flash of Barcelona but get things done with a hard-nosed defensive approach. Their 13 goals allowed are the fewest in the league with only four being conceded at home.

The team has long made Wanda Metropolitano a fortress, and this season own the league’s best home record where they have yet to lose a match. They are only one of two sides in La Liga to hold that distinction.

2024 UEFA Champions League Odds Tracker
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Can You Find Value in La Liga?

The argument could be made that Atlético Madrid have missed a chance to be top of the table. With Barcelona already dropping points in six matches, the opportunity was there for the taking.

Yet Atleti are still well-positioned to make up ground with just over half a season to play. Unless you’re willing to lay -1000 with Barça or take a flyer on third place Sevilla at +5000, in my opinion Atleti are the only side worth betting right now.

Striker Antoine Griezmann has eight goals while no other player on the team has more than two. However they should be welcoming back Diego Costa soon from injury to help in the attack.

For Atlético Madrid to stand a chance of unseating Barça, it could come down to a head-to-head matchup on April 6th. Several matches will be played before and after this date, but if each team keeps playing at a similar pace, this match will be crucial to cutting into Barcelona’s lead.

The two sides drew 1-1 earlier this year in Madrid and have drawn four of their past seven head-to-heads with Barcelona winning three.

Best Value Bet: Atlético Madrid +700

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