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Champions League Odds Favor Manchester City at +200 After Quarterfinal Draw; Chelsea Shortens to +500

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 19, 2021 · 11:29 AM PDT

Champions League
Manchester City players celebrate after scoring their team second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Wolves at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Tuesday, March 2, 2021. (Carl Recine/Pool via AP)
  • The draw of the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League has been made
  • Favorites Man City have been drawn against Borussia Dortmund in the last eight
  • We look at the draw, list the odds, and look for the value bet

The draw of the last eight of the UEFA Champions League was made on Friday morning, with the favorites, Manchester City, being drawn against German giants Borussia Dortmund.  As a result, City – who was +450 before the round of 16 – have now seen their average odds of +242 narrow to +213. The second favorites, Bayern Munich have seen their average odds drift to +350 from +328 after drawing PSG in the last eight.

We look at the draw, see how this has affected the odds, and then try and identify some good bets.

UEFA Champions League 2020-21 Odds

Team Odds
Manchester City 200
Bayern Munich 350
Chelsea 500
Liverpool 600
Paris Saint-Germain 750
Real Madrid 1100
Borussia Dortmund 2800
Porto 4000

Odds from DraftKings taken Mar 19

Man City Cruising

Man City’s safe passage to the quarterfinals has further strengthened their place as favorites to win this competition, with their 4-0 aggregate win over Borussia Monchengladbach being the joint-biggest winning margin of the round. A draw against another German team, Borussia Dortmund, will hold no fears for the Citizens, even with the second-leg being away from home. With BVB struggling to make the top four in this season’s Bundesliga – despite the presence of Erling Haaland in their team – this looks a good draw for City and their odds have shortened for a reason.

Porto caused the big upset of the round-of-16 with an outstanding away-goals win over Italian giants, Juventus. As a result, the Portuguese champions cannot be underestimated, as reflected in their average Champions League odds which have come in from +15000 to +3650,  but, equally, will be seen as a good draw by their last eight opponents, Chelsea.

The west Londoners also performed brilliantly in the round-of-16 with a 3-0 on aggregate win over Atletico Madrid, so much so they are now third favorites, and after being +1567 prior to the round-of-16 they shortened to +1300 after the win over Atleti. The bookies see the Blues’ draw with Porto as the perfect one for them and they are now third favorites at +475.

Repeat of Last Season’s Final as Bayern meet PSG

The big tie of the quarterfinals is Bayern Munich’s clash with PSG – a repeat of the 2020 final that will see one of the tournament’s big guns being eliminated. For Bayern, this has been another very comfortable campaign to date. Their 6-2 aggregate win over Lazio in the round-of-16 was done at a stroll, befitting a team who have their sights on another crown.

However, their odds have drifted slightly as a result of drawing PSG – now an average of +350 – and as a result, this could be a good time to get your money on the Germans. Their comfortable win over PSG in last season’s final will certainly give Bayern a psychological advantage going into this tie.

PSG’s thrilling round-of-16 win over the once-mighty Barcelona was a clear indicator that the Parisiens are looking to go deep into the tournament again this season and it is certain that their owners – Qatar Sports Investments – will expect the team to go one step further this season. The vast sums of money invested in PSG have produced consecutive Ligue 1 titles but the biggest European prize has so far eluded them.

Neither PSG or Bayern will be happy with this draw, and it will be a monumental clash and is also one that may well produce the winner of this season’s tournament. Following their thrilling win over Barca, PSG’s odds shortened considerably but as a result of this draw they have now gone out to a very tempting average of +775.

Reds and Real Still Believing

The final quarterfinal tie pitches together Liverpool and Real Madrid – two former winners of the competition and two clubs who, despite having disappointing domestic seasons, will still believe they can win this tournament. The Reds secured a safe passage through to the last eight with an emphatic 4-0 aggregate win over last season’s semi-finalists RB Leipzig. While for Real it was an equally comfortable 4-1 over the tournament’s minnows Atalanta.

Both clubs may view their lack of domestic success as an extra incentive to go further in this tournament, especially as both have expectant boards and fans who demand silverware. For a club as big as Real to drift out to +1100 and be listed as sixth favorites is almost unheard of and so they are well worth keeping an eye on. If they can edge past Liverpool, they still have enough quality players in their squad to be able to win this competition.

Champions League Best Bet

So, while Man City’s favorable quarterfinal draw has seen them reinstalled as favorites, the 2/1 on offer represents very little value. Especially with so many quality teams still left in the competition. Liverpool too, if they are able to make it to the semifinals should not be ignored. But for me, the +750 on offer for PSG – the same PSG who just dispatched Barca – is where the value currently lies. The Parisiens have been tasked with winning this trophy and if they can find a way past Bayern, this could be their year.

Pick: PSG to win the Champions League (+750)

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