Dijon and Nimes Each Given 2-1 Odds for Ligue 1 Relegation

• Dijon and Nimes are the two teams favored for relegation from Ligue 1 in the 2020-21 season
• Metz, Brest and Lens all follow closely behind in the latest Ligue 1 relegation odds
• Which teams represent good value?

With the Ligue 1 season beginning this weekend, odds have been released on relegation. Dijon and Nimes are the pre-season favorites for the drop – the two teams finished 16th and 18th respectively last season.

Lorient and Lens, the pair promoted from Ligue 2, are also available at a short price. There’s a group of teams following Dijon and Nimes in the odds and several sides that could get pulled into the relegation scrap.

It’s all about PSG at the top of the Ligue 1 odds, but this is a very competitive league outside the runaway favorites. Saint Etienne had a very difficult 2019-20 and were well in the relegation mix for much of the season. The season before, Monaco only narrowly avoided the drop. As the odds in the table below shows, few teams are safe in Ligue 1.

Ligue 1 2020-21 Relegation Odds

Odds taken August 19

Two Favorites Under Pressure

Dijon and Nimes marginally underperformed their expected numbers per Understat, and crucially both have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far. Dijon lost central defender Nayef Aguerd to Rennes for £4.5 million and have put faith in youth, signing Alex Dobre from Bournemouth and loaning in Pape Cheikh and Eric Ebimbe. Nimes have bolstered their midfield with the signings of Andres Cubas and Yassine Benrahou.

Benrahou’s loan deal being made permanent could be a big move for Nimes. He gave them a real boost last season, and for a team that struggled to create chances in 2019-20, his creativity is invaluable.

It’s no surprise to see these two teams among the favorites. Nimes were teetering, losing their last three when the season was halted. If the campaign had played out, they may well have fallen into the bottom two. Dijon were three points ahead, but their form was far from impressive, too.

Newly Promoted Duo

Lorient and Lens, as most newly promoted teams are, have been very active in the transfer market. Lorient brought in Adrian Grbic from Clermont to give them another option upfront and signed Stephane Diarra and Quentin Boisgard, two players who should create chances. Trevoh Chalobah came in on loan from Chelsea to provide some depth in midfield and at the back. Not all of these additions will work out, but it’s the sort squad overhaul that promoted teams require.

Lens’ moves have been similar. Corentin Jean’s loan move has been made permanent after he scored three goals in nine Ligue 2 appearances last term. Seko Fofana and Ignatius Gagano are high-profile additions in midfield and attack. On the surface, at least, Lens look well-prepared for their return to the top flight.

It’s easy to lean towards the promoted teams when it comes to relegation betting, but Lorient and Lens look well-equipped for this Ligue 1 season.

Metz to Struggle

Aside from Toulouse, who picked up a measly 13 points last season, Metz were the worst team in the league by expected points. Their defense was okay, but they struggled desperately to create opportunities throughout the season.

Wins over Amiens and Nimes in the final two matches flattered them. They finished 15th, but their tally of 27 goals scored was joint-second-worst in the division.

Their efforts to address this in the off-season saw them bring in winger Vagner and permanently sign a young striker from Manchester City in Thierry Ambrose. Vagner scored seven and assisted a couple in the second tier last season, while Ambrose was limited to occasional starts and bench cameos.

How Vagner fares will be key. Habib Diallo was pretty much their lone attacking threat last season – he registered 8.2 non-penalty expected goals. No one else was above 3.7.

There’s sufficient uncertainty to be pessimistic about Metz’s chances this season. They didn’t create enough last season, and this window doesn’t suggest a massive improvement.

Pick: Metz to get relegated (+300)