2018 FIFA World Cup: Mexico and Sweden Square Off in Must Win Game

• Mexico and Sweden kick off in a key Group F match at 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday, June 27th
• Will Mexico keep their momentum going after wins over Germany and South Korea?
• Can Sweden rebound after a crushing last-second defeat?

In Matchday 3 in Group F and all four teams still have a lot to play for. Mexico leads the group on six points and shocked the world in their first match by defeating Germany 1-0. They followed that up with a 2-1 win over South Korea.

Despite dropping both their games, the South Koreans could still find a way through to the Round 16. A South Korean win over Germany by two or more goals and a Sweden loss to Mexico could see them progress. Germany’s last-second goal and win over Sweden means they sit tied for the second spot in the group with Sweden on three points. Germany and Sweden have identical records at 1-0-1 with two goals scored and two allowed.

Sweden saw a precious point evaporate before their eyes in the dying moments of their match with Germany, falling in a 2-1 defeat. Had they held onto the draw, Sweden would have been sitting on four points and could’ve secured automatic progression with only a draw against Mexico.

Instead, they’ll now need to either beat Mexico or aim for a draw if South Korea beats Germany. Sweden will be looking for more from striker Marcus Berg, who so far has been held pointless in the tournament. Berg lead the team in scoring during qualifying with eight goals and two assists.

Sweden controlled much of the match against South Korea holding a 15-5 and 4-0 edge in shots and shots on target, along with 56-percent of possession. All that said, it took a 65′ minute penalty from Andreas Granqvist to secure the Swedes the win.

Even though Sweden still had their chances in their next game against Germany, they didn’t have things fall their way. They were outshot in total shots and shots on target by 18-7 and 6-5 margins respectively, and only held 24% of the ball. That gaudy possession stat is even worse considering they played the final 13 minutes of the match a man up after Germany received a red card.

Sweden is not a ball possession team though, and they will likely be expecting to soak up the pressure and counter attack against the Mexicans.

El Tri held 59% of possession against South Korea and will look to control the tempo against Sweden as well. The Mexicans have shown an impressive work rate and commitment to defense in this tournament, traits not often synonymous with previous Mexican national teams.

Heach coach Juan Carlos Osorio was often criticized in the lead up to the World Cup for his constant tinkering with his lineup. In fact, over the 48 games he coached before the tournament, he not once deployed the same starting 11. That trend continued in the World Cup, though only one change was made from the first to second games.

So far he’s pushed all the right buttons playing two completely different styles in both games. Fans are chanting his name in the stands and players are calling him a genius. “Chucky” Lozano and Chicharito have formed a partnership up front, each recording a goal and and an assist, LAFC’s Carlos Vela has looked brilliant in the midfield, and Carlos Salcedo moved from right back to centre-back for the South Korea game and looked like one of their top defenders.

All this goodwill will be for naught though if Mexico can’t finish the job and advance from Group F. At 2-0-0 Mexico can still finish anywhere from first to third in the group.

Group F Results

Betting Advice

Pick: Draw +225

Pick:Under 2.5 goals

Each team has proven capable in the tournament thus far. Each has also had impressive performances against tournament favorites Germany. Sweden were moments away from a draw with the mighty Germans and Mexico defeated them. Mexico also proved they can sit back and absorb pressure against one of the top teams in the world when need be.

On Wednesday, all they’ll need is a draw to claim first place in the group. If they can get up a goal or find themselves tied late in the game they’ll have no problem sitting back and grinding out the draw.

If not for the 95′ minute goal by Germany against Sweden, 3/4 games involving these teams would have gone under 2.5 goals.

Mexico vs Sweden Odds