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France vs Germany Odds & Prediction – Euro 2020 Group F June 15th

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Jul 12, 2021 · 12:50 PM PDT

France vs Germany
France's head coach Didier Deschamps, right, greets his player Kylian Mbappé after he was substituted during the international friendly soccer match between France and Wales at the Allianz Riviera stadium in Nice, France, Wednesday, June 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)
  • France and Germany meet in Munich on Tuesday in the opening round of Group F fixtures
  • France are among the betting favorites to win Euro 2020, but they are in the Group of Death with Germany, Portugal and Hungary
  • Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and a pick

As a host nation, Germany gets home advantage when they face France on Tuesday June 15th. The world champions head to Munich as one of the favorites to win the tournament, but they must first overcome a brutal group featuring a talented German side, the reigning European champions and a Hungarian team playing two of their group matches in Budapest.

France are narrowly favored for their tournament opener in Germany. Despite picking up an injury in a warm-up match, Karim Benzema is expected to be fit to start. For Germany, it’s unlikely that Bayern midfielder Leon Goretzka will be available as he works his way back from a muscle issue.

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France vs Germany Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
France vs Germany FRA -0.25 (+123) | GER +0.25 (-148) FRA +165 | GER +190 | DRAW +215 Ov 2.5 (+112) | Un 2.5 (-136)

Odds as of June 14 at DraftKings

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Midfield Battle

No match in this tournament will have as much midfield talent as this one. Even with Leon Goretzka out and Joshua Kimmich pushed to wing-back, the middle third is stacked. Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller, Kai Havertz and Ilkay Gundogan will look to limit the control of France’s trio. Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante have immense big-game experience, and they will likely be joined by Corentin Tolisso.

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France have played Germany five times since 2015 and haven’t lost. It’s easy to get lost in the depth at Didier Deschamps’ disposal, but the starting XI is what really matters, and their midfield is what makes them such a terrifying opponent. The mobility of Gundogan and Kroos will be tested by third-man runs from the French midfielders. Havertz and Muller will have a lot of work to do defensively.

Joachim Low has had mixed success with the back three so far. It allows them to congest the middle of the pitch in a match like this, but taking Kimmich out of the midfield is a risk. France have the personnel to dominate the midfield and overrun Germany’s deep-lying pair.

Poor German Form

Low made big calls, bringing back some veterans. Germany’s squad needed a shake up. For all their talent, their recent performances and results have been woeful. A warm-up draw with Denmark can be excused, but defeat to North Macedonia, and a one-goal win over Romania isn’t ideal preparation for a major tournament.

This all comes on the back of a poor Nations League campaign, too. Germany are still a short price for this match and to progress, but there’s fair concerns about where the team is right now. They head into the Group of Death short of form, even with a 7-1 win over Latvia on June 7th.

France’s build-up hasn’t been perfect either with some rather petty and unnecessary tension between Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud. Their recent form is superb, however, with Les Bleus losing just once in their last 20 matches.

France vs Germany Statistics

France
VS
Germany
WWWWWW Form LWWLDW
Runners-up Euro 2016 Semifinalists
25 Goals scored in Qualifying 30
6 Goals conceded in Qualifying 7
27.8 Average Squad Age 27.5

France Edge It

High-scoring matches are rare in tournament football. There’s been a lot of cagey football in the first round of Euro 2020 fixtures. Given the stakes in this group, similar can be expected in Munich on Tuesday. Germany are going to pack the midfield and will hope to use their pace on the break to catch out the France defense.

Under 2.5 is worth considering, though the -136 price is on the short side given the attacking talent on display. Germany have kept just one clean sheet since 2019 – France to score over 1.5 at +175 could also provide good value.

Given their record over the last few years and the supreme quality throughout the XI, it’s impossible to look past a France win against a struggling Germany.

Pick: France Moneyline (+165)

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