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France vs Poland Odds & Prediction – World Cup Round of 16 (Dec 4)

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Dec 3, 2022 · 11:16 AM PST

France
France's Kilian Mbappe celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during the World Cup 2022 group D qualifying soccer match between France and Kazakhstan at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, France, Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)
  • France takes on Poland in the Round of 16 on Sunday, December 4th at 10:00 am ET
  • Les Bleus are unbeaten in their last seven contests versus Poland and have -320 moneyline odds to win on Sunday
  • Get more France vs Poland odds and predictions below

France vs Poland will be the third Round of 16 match at the 2022 World Cup, and it is one that will surely be entertaining to watch and break down in our France vs Poland prediction.

The defending champions advanced through their group on six points, thanks to wins versus Australia and Denmark. A final Matchday loss versus Tunisia blemished what could have been a perfect record, but do not be concerned over their form. Didier Deschamps rotated nine players on the evening to try and keep fresh legs.

On the other hand, Poland barely snuck out of Group C after finishing level on points with Mexico. Goal difference was the deciding factor between those two nations, which brought Poland to the knockout stages for the first time since 1986. They now face the difficult challenge of taking down France, a country who has won all five of their Round of 16 matchups and are heavily favored in the France vs Poland odds.

France vs Poland Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
France -320
Poland +950
Draw +450

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Unsurprisingly, France are the heavy moneyline favorites with odds of -320. This insinuates an implied win probably of 76.19%. To get any sort of value on the France line, you will have to bet on the spread or do a player/team parlay. Currently, France -1.5, or to win by two or more goals, has odds of -105. This bet has hit in exactly 50% of their 14 matches across all competitions. France are also a top contender to win outright in the World Cup odds.

France vs Poland Over/Under

Furthermore, this match is expecting more goals rather than less. The over on 2.5 total goals sits at -120, while the reverse options has odds of -105. So far at this World Cup, the under is hitting in 60.4% of all matches. Moreover, across France and Poland’s last twenty combined matches in all competitions, the under has hit 65% of the time. In knockout matches, the game can be a bit nervy for the first half, which might limit the goal total.

France vs Poland Statistics

France
VS
Poland
1.60 Goals per game 0.90
2.12 Expected goals per game 0.81
1.00 Goals allowed per game 1.40
0.91 Expected goals allowed per game 1.85
58% Possession % 37%
20% Clean Sheet % 40%
17.9 Shots per game 8.3
L-W-W-L-W Recent Form Guide (Serie A) L-W-D-W-W

Stats in the table from the last ten matches across all competitions.

Kylian Mbappe’s Odds to Score Anytime

Next, Kylian Mbappe is -120 in the France vs Poland odds to score anytime versus Poland. He did not start or score in the last match, which has sputtered his Golden Boot campaign just slightly. In turn, he will be dying to score against a tricky Poland defense.

Poland have only conceded twice at the tournament so far, despite an xGA of 5.9. The center of their defense is quite psychical and strong so I see them handling the likes of Olivier Giroud. As the tournament progresses, expect more and more chalk to succeed. While Mbappe is not the most valuable play on the board, it is the one I am most sure of against Poland, especially considering he might be running at Matty Cash.

France vs Poland Projected Lineups and Injuries

France Projected Lineup: Lloris, T. Hernandez, Konate, Varane, Kounde, Rabiot, Tchouameni, Griezmann, Mbappe, Giroud, Dembele

Major Injuries & Absences: L. Hernandez, Benzema, Nkunku, Kante, Pogba, Maignan, Kimpembe

Poland Projected Lineup: Szczęsny, Bereszyński, Kiwior, Glik, Cash, Frankowski, Krychowiak, Bielik, Zielinski, Lewandowski, Milik

Major Injuries & Absences: None

France vs Poland Prediction

All in all, I see this match playing out just slightly in favor of France for our France vs Poland prediction. Les Bleus just have more depth and experience in these sort of big-game environments. The resilience they showed against Denmark to go on and win after the Danes broke through with an equalizer, told me a lot about this French side.

With that being said, I think Poland covers at +1.5, a result that has hit in 85% of their last 20 games. This Poland side is gritty and I refuse to believe France will make it embarrassing for them on the night.

On top of that, I favor the other two plays talked about above as well, with Mbappe scoring and the game staying under 2.5 total goals.

Pick: Poland +1.5 (+115), Under 2.5 goals (-105), Mbappe to score (-120)

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