Inter Milan vs Napoli Odds & Prediction – Serie A Week 16 (Jan 4)

• It’s Inter Milan vs Napoli in Serie A Week 16 on Wednesday, January 4
• The Italian mid-winter break is over and leaders Napoli resume with a trip to Milan
• We our Inter Milan vs Napoli prediction, look at the  odds, and offer some picks below

It’s Inter Milan vs Napoli in the San Siro on Wednesday, January 4 in round 16 of Serie A – the first round of fixtures after Italy’s mid-winter/World Cup break – with kick-off scheduled for 2:45 pm ET and with Inter favored in the Inter Milan vs Napoli odds.

Napoli, who are chasing their first Scudetto since 1990, went into the break with an eight-point lead at the top of Serie A, while Inter are down in fifth, 11 points adrift.

We preview Inter Milan vs Napoli, look at the Serie A odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and picks below.

Inter Milan vs Napoli Odds

Odds as of Jan 5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.

Given their placings in the table, it’s a surprise to see Inter starting as +135 favorites in the Inter Milan vs Napoli odds with an implied win probability of 42.6%. At +205 and with an implied probability of 32.8%, the league leaders are considered outsiders. The draw, at +225, offers the best odds, with an implied probability of 30.8%.

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Inter Milan vs Napoli Over/Under and Spread

Oddsmakers are anticipating goals here with the under 2.5 pitched in plus money at +118, while over is listed at -148.

Inter Milan vs Napoli Preview

Inter’s slip down the table to fifth prior to the winter break was mainly due to some sloppy away form – four losses and 18 goals conceded away from the San Siro – but at home, their form has held up well with six wins, no draws, and just one defeat.

During the prolonged break, they headed to Malta for a training camp but also managed to find time to play five friendlies – winning four of them, including wins over RS Salzburg and Sassuolo, and drawing with Real Betis.

⏳ #InterNapoli pic.twitter.com/BJgRUatzxN

— Inter (@Inter_en) January 2, 2023

With Lukaku Back, Even Another Scudetto Is Possible

Simone Inzaghi’s squad were without Romelu Lukaku for large chunks of the first part of the season, and so will now benefit from him having returned healthy from the World Cup and with a point to prove after Belgium’s lame exit from the tournament.

While Inter have currently slipped out of the Champions League places, they are only three points adrift of their city rivals, AC Milan in second, so it really is all to play for in the second half of the season, with a win here still leaving them with an outside chance of closing the gap on Napoli.

Inter Milan vs Napoli Head-to-Head Stats

Napoli Win 11 on the Spin

Napoli’s form going into the World Cup break was simply outstanding with a run of 11 consecutive Serie A wins. Thirteen wins and two draws so far have seen them take an incredible average of 2.73 points per game – a continuation which would see them comfortably land their first title for 23 seasons. Key to their chance of doing so will be hitting the ground running.

During the break, they had a mixed set of results with wins over Antalyaspor and Crystal Palace but defeats at the hands of Villarreal and Lille. Crucially for them, the goals continued to flow, with nine goals scored in those four matches.

🗣 #Spalletti: "I'm obsessed with seeing this city go wild with joy. I'm also a bit Neapolitan myself. Seeing this city explode with joy is what would make me happiest"

💙 #ForzaNapoliSempre pic.twitter.com/9tAaI4MsKA

— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) January 3, 2023

Napoli Only Unbeaten Team in Europe’s Big Five

Napoli have conceded just 12 goals in their 15 games so far and remain the only unbeaten side in all of Europe’s top five leagues – a phenomenal achievement. Manager Luciano Spalletti, a former Inter boss, has acknowledged the importance of the next three games, with a home game against Juventus upcoming on January 13.

Unfortunately for Napoli, they have a poor record against Inter at the San Siro, where they have lost on their last four consecutive visits. Now is the ideal time to end that run.

Inter Milan vs Napoli Team Lineups and Injuries

Inter Projected Lineup: Onana, Skriniar, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco, Dzeko, Lukaku.

Injuries & absences: Brozovic, Dalbert, De Vrij.

Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret, Di Lorenzo, Kim, Jesus, Rui, Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski, Politano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia.

Injuries & absences: None.

Inter Milan vs Napoli Prediction

While Milan starts as favorites due to their excellent home form, Napoli’s title charge is well and truly on. Eleven wins from their last eleven Serie A games is outstanding by any metric and so, for me, the value here is in the away win at better than 2/1 and Napoli ending their San Siro hoodoo for our Inter Milan vs Napoli prediction.

Picks: Napoli to win (+205)